Opinion What are Mayawati’s options now?

Mayawati went to Rajya Sabha after her party suffered defeat at the hands of the Samajwadi Party in 2012. She quit her position in the legislative council and left to join Parliament. It was easy enough at the time since BSP had 87 MLAs in the 407 MLA Assembly. The number was comfortably above the minimum electoral colelge requirement for Rajya Sabha election.

The story is different now and she can’t go to the UP Vidhan Parishad either.

Now, as Mayawati scampers to preserve her immediate political relevance, what are the options available before her?

Join hands with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and/or Congress

She can take the help of rivals SP and bury political differences till 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It seemed impossible, but a similar decision was taken by RJD and JD (U) to join hands against the BJP. Even the Congress joined in, keeping in mind the larger opponent. However, there is a lot of bad blood between Mayawati and the SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav. A similar conundrum faces former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav too and if the two parties join hands, Mayawati could go to Rajya Sabha. However, if Akhilesh Yadav chooses the route for himself then she would have to seek another way. If she indeed gets the support, it could prove key to save her political relevance at a time when the BJP juggernaut tramples every opponent in its path. Akhilesh is sitting with 47 seats in UP Assembly after suffering a bitter defeat in the state he ruled for five years. His party’s majority in the legislative council is made redundant when one considers the brute majority BJP holds in the legislative assembly in UP. Support from Congress will help too as Congress too can’t send their own member to Rajya Sabha from UP. But their seven MLAs could help Mayawati cross the line though not on their own.

Fight the Lok Sabha election in 2019

The surest path in front of Mayawati is for her to wait till 2019 and fight the Lok Sabha elections. However, with her party’s almost non-existence in parliament and UP Assembly, it could potentially prove to be political suicide. If she wishes to fight the Assembly polls, she would have to wait a longer time still, a move that would definitely be the last resort.

Find support outside UP

Mayawati could seek support from outside UP. If Mayawati can find a party that would back her appointment to Rajya Sabha, that could do the trick. However, it seems a deal hasn’t been struck yet. Otherwise, Mayawati likely have refrained from resigning.

A total of 31 Rajya Sabha members are sent from UP, the highest for any state. Also, a total of 58 seats were set to retire coming April including Mayawati. Six out of them will be from the Samajwadi Party, two from BSP, one each from Congress and BJP. The BJP is set to gain at least 11 seats n Rajya Sabha taking it tally to 67. Seven of them are expected to come from UP. Similarly two members will be sent from Rajasthan and one each from Haryana and Uttarakhand. Mayawati will need 37 MLA votes to be reappointed to Rajya Sabha from Uttar Pradesh.