Opinion Why Donald Trump’s return to the presidency can’t be ruled out

Donald Trump’s announcement of a third bid for president — he lost the second one to Joe Biden — confirms what the world already knows. Trump and the spectre of Trumpism continue to loom over the American polity. The former president, against whom there were two impeachment trials, has thrown his hat in the ring once again a week after the mid-term election. The timing is significant. The Republicans have taken control of the House of Representatives, ending the Democrats’ full control over Congress. But it was a narrow victory and the Democrats will continue to control the Senate. Against the expectation of a Republican sweep in a year in which the cost of living and President Biden’s low ratings dominated the debate, the Grand Old Party is assessing its under-performance.

Half the Republican candidates were “election-deniers”, that is, Trump camp followers who believe that he actually won the last presidential election, and was done out of his second term by “electoral fraud”. Many of these candidates have won. Republican centrists, who have been trying to reclaim the party’s pre-Trump aura, are certain that Trumpism is to blame for the defeat in key constituencies. At a time when these elections also appear to indicate an emerging new leadership, Trump seems to have pushed his bid through to declare that he is not going away. Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis’s re-election has given the party something to chew over. Described as a Trumpist in civvies, DeSantis is leading Trump in opinion polls among Republican voters.

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The former president may also believe that being in the White House is the best insurance against the multiple investigations against him. He continues to be in denial about the criminal implications of the Capitol Hill raid and his speech announcing his bid confirms that he remains as given to speaking falsehoods and making bloated claims, despite his demonstrated failures in office. The American system of nomination races within parties may yet save the US. But large swathes of Americans are still in thrall of Trumpism, which in plain terms is a backlash against the liberal values associated with American democracy. There is no ruling out the possibility that the Republican Party still believes, as it did in 2016 and 2020, that Trump’s way offers the easy route to returning to power.