Despite the gathering gloom in the international community over Afghanistan’s first democratic transition of power, it should be noted that the electoral process did take place, with a first round of presidential elections in April, followed by a run-off in June. The first round saw almost 60 per cent of the electorate participate, in contrast to the one-third turnout in the 2009 presidential election that was marred by serious allegations of fraud. This itself is the strongest possible political answer the Afghan people could have given the Taliban.
Unfortunately, that is the extent of the good news. The preliminary results of the run-off have been contested by Abdullah Abdullah — who had narrowly missed an outright majority in the first round and has claimed victory in the run-off — and Afghanistan appears to have reached a deadlock that looks intractable. The final results, expected around July 22, could be markedly different. But if the allegations of fraud are true, this would be the second time Abdullah would seem to have been cheated out of the presidency, having withdrawn himself from the run-off in 2009 for the same reason.
If Ashraf Ghani, who leads in the preliminary results, does succeed Karzai, New Delhi would have to find ways to deal with him. Having invested heavily in Afghanistan politically and economically, Delhi must demonstrate its strategic commitment to Kabul’s stability. The next Afghan president will have to deal with a Taliban enjoying sanctuary within the country and across the border in Pakistan, and Pakistani attempts at destabilising Afghan armed forces. It is promising that both Ghani and Abdullah have promised to ratify the pending security pact with the US that Karzai refused to sign. The next president’s legitimacy will not be enough to solve all of Afghanistan’s problems, but in a strife-torn country, it will certainly be a reason for hope.
