Opinion Express View on Pakistan election: A bigger farce

There is no end to the political tragedy of Pakistan, with yet another election manipulated by its army ending in a deliberately engineered stalemate. As in the 2018 election — which saw a hung national assembly and the army’s construction of a majority in favour of Imran Khan — Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir now directs the construction of a new ruling coalition. But the electoral process under Gen Munir has become an even bigger farce than before, thanks to brazen rigging before and after polling. The Pakistan army’s new model of a “hybrid” government — in which the GHQ in Rawalpindi has an expansive role in governing the polity and economy — failed to deliver after the 2018 elections. This time, the puppet government installed by Gen Munir will have even less credibility.

At the heart of the problem has been the deepening contradiction between the massive popularity of Imran Khan and the army’s determination to destroy his party and persona. Having built up Imran Khan as the alternative to the traditional leadership, the army was upset with Imran’s attempt to strike out on his own and sought to bring him down. Despite handing him long sentences for corruption, leaking state secrets, and adultery, and barring his party (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) from contesting the elections, Imran-backed independents have gained the largest plurality of seats in the National Assembly. Without the alleged rigging during the counting of votes, it is entirely plausible that Imran Khan would have got a two-thirds majority in the Assembly. As it put down Imran Khan, the army facilitated the return of exiled Nawaz Sharif, a three-term prime minister who was ousted from power in 2017 on corruption charges. Yet, it has also been clear the army will not allow Nawaz Sharif a free hand to run the country. His Pakistan Muslim League has emerged as the largest single party, but behind the PTI-backed independents. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has also won a significant number of seats.

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By engineering a fractured mandate — the PTI knocked out, and the PML cut down to size, Gen Munir will have a big say in the formation of the next government, in which no civilian leader can threaten the army’s dominance over the polity and its preferences in policy-making. Nawaz Sharif has claimed the right to form the new government and has appealed to other parties to join him. The next few days will see intense bargaining between PML and PPP under the supervision of the army to structure the new coalition and the distribution of the fishes and loaves of government. But by keeping Imran Khan locked up and the PTI out of power in a rigged process, it is not clear how long the new government might last. In the near term, the big question is what Gen Munir could do with a pliable but politically illegitimate government under him in addressing the challenges facing the nation. These include unstable borders, the return of violent religious extremism, and a tottering economy. Going by the army’s historical record, there is no reason to hold one’s breath.