The ‘diplomatic off-ramp’ is the best means of resolving the tensions in Ukraine
Friday’s hour-long telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama, followed by Sunday’s hastily scheduled meeting in Paris between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, may have laid the ground for the “diplomatic off-ramp” that’s the only way to resolve the tensions arising out of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and its troop build-up along Ukraine’s border.
A hardline approach of further sanctions against Russian officials and targeting the world’s eighth-largest economy has limited viability. Sanctions against individuals are insignificant. Closing large sections of Russia’s economy to the West would be self-defeating.
After the IMF’s announcement of a $14-18 billion bailout for Ukraine and the UN General Assembly’s resolution calling the Crimea referendum invalid, these talks are the first top-level outreach from the Kremlin, signalling that Moscow was putting its military actions on hold. On Saturday, Lavrov said Russia wouldn’t send troops into Ukraine.
Moscow seems interested in the US proposal, involving an end to Russia’s military build-up, deployment of international observers in eastern Ukraine to protect Russian speakers, and Russian troops in Crimea returning to their bases. That doesn’t preclude hard bargaining. Moscow’s stakes are higher. Putin, significantly, raised Moldova’s breakaway Trans-Dniester region, seen as the next territory Moscow would grab, and on Sunday, Lavrov called for a “federal” and “neutral” Ukraine.
Efforts to isolate Russia will persist. And a radical shift in Moscow is unlikely. China, which abstained from the UN Security Council vote to leverage its clout in both Moscow and Washington, would be particularly satisfied as the new proposal seems curiously shaped around its ideas.
In sharp contrast, New Delhi couldn’t decide at first whether to react. When it did, it was perceived to side with Moscow, harking back to an older diplomatic era and lacking the agility to exploit the current great-power dynamic.
