Opinion Express View on Rajya Sabha polls: Opposition breaking and BJP winning

The Rajya Sabha election show on Tuesday was riveting — and immensely sobering. Taking centrestage were cross-voting Congress and SP MLAs, listening to what they called their “antaratma ki awaz (inner voice)”, ending up in BJP victories beyond what its numbers foretold, and dramatic upsets for Congress and SP in Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. And, in the immediate aftermath, a suspenseful battle of survival for the sole Congress government in the north complete with allegations that six of its MLAs were spirited away to a resort in BJP-ruled Haryana (they have subsequently returned). At election’s end, the BJP has pushed its way to within touching distance of a majority in the Upper House, while Congress looks even more disheveled, if that were possible, than it did before it. Going ahead, however, for both the losers and winner of Tuesday’s tawdry contest, there are uncomfortable questions and, as the Lok Sabha election draws closer, much to reflect on.

Congress had wrested Himachal Pradesh from the BJP in 2022 in an outright victory – it finished with 40 seats in a House of 68, with the BJP trailing well behind at 25. And yet, if Congress’s Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu government looks like it is teetering on the brink the day after a tie-breaker was needed for the lone RS seat in the state, a predatory BJP is primarily to blame — but Congress is also an accomplice in its own diminishing. By all accounts, the Congress high command turned a tin ear to the threats within – the chief ministership of Sukhu remained an unsettled matter and the party’s attempted balancing act between rival factions was not succeeding in stanching the internal bloodletting. Just as Congress took its eye off the ball in Himachal Pradesh, the SP appeared to have lost its connect with its own leaders in UP. There have been indications for some time now that while Akhilesh Yadav inherited the party from his father, he is a distant presence, displaying very little of Netaji’s mulayam (soft) touch and constant engagement with party colleagues.

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For those who are restless or discontented in rival parties, the BJP’s air of winnability, real and projected, is arguably a strong draw ahead of a crucial Lok Sabha election. And yet, that is surely not all there is to the phenomenon that seems to be picking up pace in state after state – of leaders and legislators from non-BJP parties crossing over to the BJP. Operation Lotus is no figment of the Opposition’s imagination. Apart from MLAs floor-crossing and cross-voting in the BJP’s favour, it folds in splits in rival parties, and the sudden demise of governments headed by non-BJP parties. It includes the BJP using fear and favour, carrot and stick, and the weaponisation of central agencies to selectively target those in Opposition parties. For now, its will to win at all costs may be delivering results. But as the party that rules at the Centre and in many states, and one that is likely to remain a dominant pole in the polity for the foreseeable future, the BJP must pause and reflect on the ramifications of its winner-takes-all approach even if it means playing fast and loose with the rules of the game. Smash-and-grab politics may yield an immediate dividend but it has a high cost.