Opinion China’s Covid surge, India’s warning

The renewed and unfolding Covid-19 emergency in China has set off warning bells in India. Rightly so. Even though there is no cause for alarm, reactivating surveillance procedures, which had become all but dormant in the last few months, is a step in the right direction, considering the proven unpredictability of the virus. Realistically speaking, the situation in China is a threat to India only as much as the several big and small waves in various countries were in the last nine months. What is happening in China is a consequence of the manner in which the pandemic has been dealt with in that country. Apprehensions are that infections would increase in China at an even faster rate and very large numbers of people would fall sick at the same time, overwhelming the country’s healthcare systems, and resulting in a chaos that China has managed to avoid till now in the pandemic. The possibility of a spillover effect on India, however, though not entirely ruled out, does not pose a major risk at this point.

The dominant variant in circulation in China, the BF.7, is essentially an Omicron sub-variant. There are hundreds of Omicron sub-variants circulating in the world right now — over 500, according to the World Health Organisation — each with some special characteristics, but none remarkably more dangerous enough to be designated as a new Variant of Concern (VoC), a WHO classification that marks out a global threat. Many of these sub-variants must be in circulation in the Indian population as well. Just because a lower number of cases are being detected in India does not mean the virus has disappeared from the country. The current sub-variants, including BF.7, which has been found to be floating around, are either not powerful enough to overcome the natural immunity in most Indians, or are able to infect only in harmless ways. But this situation could change, and this is why the Chinese situation needs to be monitored closely. Because of the very large number of infections that are likely in China, the chances of the virus mutating into newer forms is greater than at any point of time in the last one year. Whether it would evolve into a more powerful virus, or just more sub-variants of Omicron, cannot be predicted. Scientists say the possibility of a Delta-like variant re-emerging is very low, but not zero. From the Indian standpoint, therefore, stepping up surveillance makes a lot of sense.

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It has been nine months since the Omicron wave petered out in India. A fresh wave in the coming months would not be surprising. The Chinese situation is only incidental in this regard — even the Omicron sub-variants can cause this new wave. Many countries have seen multiple waves of infections caused by Omicron, or its sub-variants. Both natural as well as vaccine-acquired immunity are not permanent. It is, therefore, good to see the government respond quickly to the emerging situation in China.