Opinion Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s election is a rejection of politics as usual in Sri Lanka

For the first time in its recent history, Sri Lanka has elected an “outsider” — from a Marxist-Leninist party that once led violent insurrections — as its president. Over the years, however, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has become more mainstream, with a social-democratic agenda. The newly elected 55-year-old president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, has played a significant part in this transformation. Dissanayake was also a key figure in the popular “Aragalaya” uprising against inflation, price rise, and economic mismanagement, which led to the ouster of the Rajapaksas. That Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe lost to a political player till recently seen as fringe can be read as a sign of how much the people of Sri Lanka are tired of politics as usual. Given some of the new president’s positions — ideological and on policy matters — there is an apprehension that his government will be “pro-China” and detrimental to India’s interests. But it is important that, as it deals with Sri Lanka’s new political establishment, Delhi not pay heed to such binaries.

The victory of the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition — of which the JVP is the major constituent – did not take India by surprise. Dissanayake visited India in February and met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Clearly, Delhi had a sense of the anti-incumbency mood in Sri Lanka. A major political change like the one in Colombo will, however, still present challenges. The JVP’s opposition to the 13th Amendment of Sri Lanka’s constitution — which provides for devolution of power to the Tamil minority — as well as talk on the campaign trail of cancelling the Adani Group’s wind power project could be issues of contention between the two countries. At the same time, Dissanayake has hinted at continuing close ties with Delhi. India did not feature prominently in the election campaign — unlike, say, in the Maldives where President Mohamed Muizzu led an “India Out” campaign — and Delhi enjoys some goodwill for the assistance it provided during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. It is important, then, for Delhi to continue to build on the bilateral engagement — Dissanayake has responded warmly to congratulatory messages from PM Modi. India has the advantage of a shared history and geographic proximity with the island nation and the two countries have much to gain by deepening bilateral ties. It is important to deal with unfolding political changes as they occur, and not over-emphasise the China factor.

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President Dissanayake has his task cut out for him. His anti-corruption, pro-welfare plank has certainly found resonance. At the same time, Sri Lanka’s economy remains the greatest challenge facing the country. The bailout provided by the IMF in 2023 has helped bring some stability. Dissanayake has promised to pay back the debt and also said that he will seek amendments to the taxation targets under the deal. Given that the NPP does not have a legislative majority yet, passing a budget that engages in such a fine balancing act is one of the difficult tasks ahead.