Opinion Ties that bind and constrain

The Obama administration,intent on moving out of Afghanistan,has signalled to Indian adversaries that they can shape the post-American ground realities to serve their own ends. Both India and Iran are unlikely to accept an Afghanistan that serves as a springboard for the Pakistani military. In the second ministerial-level visit in less than a month,Iran’s deputy foreign minister was in India in early August to coordinate the approach towards Afghanistan.

In recent years,India has repeatedly voted in favour of IAEA resolutions condemning Iran’s nuclear behaviour. Though the Indian prime minister has been categorical in his assertion that a nuclear Iran is not in Indian interests,the Indian government has also underlined that it favours dialogue and diplomacy as a means of resolving the crisis. It has said that unilateral sanctions on Iran will hurt India,expressing its disapproval of sanctions that restrict investments by third countries in Iran’s energy sector. As the Indian foreign secretary,Nirupama Rao,recently made clear,India is “justifiably concerned that the extra-territorial nature of certain unilateral sanctions recently imposed by individual countries,with their restrictions on investment by third countries in Iran’s energy sector,can have a direct and adverse impact on Indian companies and more importantly,on our [India’s energy security and our attempts to meet the development needs of our people.” Despite the West’s sanctions,the Indian government is encouraging companies to invest in the Iranian energy sector so that economic interests can underpin the India-Iran political realignment.

The issue of the $7.5 billion Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline is also back on the agenda. Not only has Pakistan already signed the deal,China is also starting to make its presence felt in a big way,becoming Iran’s largest trading partner and undertaking massive investments as it rapidly occupies the space vacated by Western firms (who responded to international pressure over the nuclear programme). Iran hopes to defeat its global isolation by courting China and China can make use of Iran’s energy resources without any real competition. Ever since the United Nations Security Council started imposing sanctions on Iran,India has enforced all measures against Tehran and its energy interests have consequently suffered. China,a member of the Security Council,has been able to pursue its energy interests with Iran without much difficulty. Iran was the third largest exporter of crude oil to China last year,accounting for about 11 per cent of China’s total crude imports. India is right to feel restless about its own marginalisation in Iran despite its old civilisational ties. New Delhi has now indicated that it will soon be resuming negotiations for independently importing natural gas from Iran via the sea pipeline.

India is trying to maintain a balance between preserving its strategic interests in Iran and adhering to its global obligations. Though New Delhi’s strategic room to manoeuvre in Tehran will remain limited so long as Tehran does not find a modus vivendi with the West on the nuclear question,there is no reason why India should not keep all its options open.

The writer teaches at King’s College,London express@expressindia.com