Opinion The squid whisperer

In case you missed it,Paul went eight for eight in the World Cup,predicting the outcome of Germany’s seven matches (five wins and two losses),and Spain’s triumph in the final. He chose before the matches from two transparent containers lowered into his tank. Each contained mussels and was adorned with the national flag of one side. Whichever team’s food he devoured first would win.

My amateur math tells me the probability of his prodigious success was one in 512. That’s impressive — and so what? Is Paul a suction-pod witch? Was he in touch with higher forces? And what of his keeper,Oliver Walenciak,who has claimed “exceptional powers” for the creature?

Here,I regret to say,we arrive at correlation and causation (you can have one without the other). For enlightenment,I turned to David Brillinger in the statistics department at the University of California,Berkeley. He was less than overwhelmed by Paul,pointing to various “nonsense correlations,” like the one that said the candidate with the longer name never lost the race for the U.S. presidency. That worked from 1932,when Roosevelt beat Hoover,to 1960,when Kennedy beat Nixon,but came apart when Goldwater lost to Johnson in 1964. That’s eight elections,of course,exactly the number of matches Paul predicted.

Mine any data in the right way — like those elections — and you can find remarkable coincidences or “streaks.” Pharmaceutical companies testing a new vaccine or drug might be tempted to examine data over 100 days if the data over 365 days is unpersuasive. Correlation can become a substitute for causation.

But what data could Paul have been mining in his aquarium?

I consulted my friend and tennis partner Greg Schwed,who first betrayed his penchant for statistical theory by explaining the permutations of having eight tennis players play three doubles matches over two hours on two courts,which is what we and six others do once a week. It appears that having everybody play with everybody is only possible if you have two players in the same matches throughout — or something like that.

And what of the octopus-sage? Schwed was downright dismissive. The story of Paul put him in mind of that old canard,the Super Bowl Indicator,or “SBI.” According to the SBI,if a team from the old National Football League won the Super Bowl of American football,typically played in late January,the stock market would go up for the rest of the year. From 1967 (the first Super Bowl) through 1997,it was uncannily accurate,correctly predicting the broad market trend for 28 of the 31 years. But after 1997,the SBI slumped and was 0 for 4 in the following four years.

Now,as Schwed pointed out,it’s possible that there was a correlation in the sense that superstitious traders,seeing the Super Bowl result,decided to buy and so sent the market up. Just as it’s possible,as Brillinger noted,that Walenciak,the octopus feeder,subconsciously put more tempting food in the “more likely” box — although Germany’s loss to Serbia was a surprise.

I think we’re dealing with a case of Jungian “synchronicity,” which the great psychiatrist described as “temporally coincident occurrences of acausal events.”

The World Cup,after all,is the world’s most watched event. If any occurrence — social,emotional,psychological and spiritual — is capable of channeling human energy to an octopus in Oberhausen,then surely this one is. The relationship between Paul’s eating choices and the World Cup results may not be causal in nature,but,hey,I’m prepared to believe it speaks of Jung’s deeper order,one that connects man and mollusk.

It was a great World Cup. The best team won. Without eating mussels,I predicted a Spanish victory at the outset before having a German wobble caused by emotion to which octopi are immune.

Speaking of emotion,Germans got upset with Paul for predicting their team’s semi-final loss to Spain,calling for him to be roasted,as witches were once. I’m partial to well-spiced octopus but think Paul can be put to better uses,among them predicting possible outcomes of BP’s attempts to cap the Gulf oil spill. The depths ought to be his element — even more than the beautiful game.