Opinion The name of the father
Chandrababu Naidu might win the Congress-Jagan tug of war.
Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddys resignation from the Congress was not unexpected,but it was sudden. It has brought his running battle with the Congress high command to a head,one that began with his father Y. S. Rajasekhar Reddys sudden death. Even as his decision has thrown Andhra Pradesh politics into a tailspin,the advantage to Jagan seems uncertain. Injury to the Congress appears certain,even though there are different assessments of the extent. It also puts the newly formed Kiran Kumar Reddy government on notice. The Congress high command will have to do some quick fire-fighting to save its government in the state,and the state leadership will have to exert itself to minimise desertions.
The long-term consequences depend on how the Congress and its new tormentor in the state leverage their respective strengths and exploit each others weaknesses. The Congress has the advantage of being in power,both at the Centre and in the state. Its government in Andhra Pradesh would have collapsed long ago had it not been in power at the Centre.
After Jagans strong bid for chief-ministership,the party high command did a less than perfect job of tightening the screws and wrenching submission from the young MP. Nor did the Congress leadership succeed in cajoling him. Despite his long years in politics and vast experience in government,K. Rosaiah did not display the political skills to neutralise Jagans aggression. In fact,Rosaiahs words and deeds only caused further flare-ups among Jagans supporters and worsened the acrimony.
Rosaiahs replacement,Kiran Kumar Reddy,is an untested leader. Despite being a legislator for three terms,serving as chief whip under YSR and subsequently as assembly speaker,he cannot guarantee a mass following. To expect him to be an effective counter to YSRs son seems unrealistic. And if the Congress high command continues to dither as it did during Rosiahs tenure,Kiran Kumar Reddys government faces the danger of collapse too.
This puts the survival of the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh at the mercy of smaller parties. And they will make costly and unreasonable demands. Three smaller parties,Majlis Ittehadul Musalmeen (MIM),Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) can come to the governments rescue if Jagan walks out with about a dozen legislators. A deal with one,two or even all the three parties might become a compulsion for the Congress. But it will severely cramp the new chief ministers room for manoeuvre,and make it difficult for him not to be seen as indecisive,ineffective and heavily dependent on the high command. That will also expose the Congress to the danger of its social base defecting. With state finances in the doldrums and the likely resurgence of the Telangana agitation after the Srikrishna Committee Report due on December 31,the government faces the danger of remaining only a constitutional entity without any political authority.
The weakening of the Congress in the state could be the result of the body blow dealt by Jagan. But it does not necessarily mean that he will be the beneficiary of that process. While he could force open the gates of the Congress citadel in the state,he lacks the wherewithal to take possession of it. He rests his political claim on being his fathers son and has not,so far,put together even the rudimentary elements of a political platform. Right now,crowds throng his meetings and the younger generation in rural areas appears favourably disposed towards him. But how long can he sustain that momentum without a sound political platform,crafted to serve a particular set of socio-economic forces? His act is a mere manoeuvre,a marginal one that lacks depth. The Congress can take advantage of Jagans weakness,just as Jagan can use the Congresss dithering to his advantage. And if both do that well,it will be a scenario of mutual assured destruction. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) might stand to gain from this feud. Despite its two successive defeats,the TDP has hardly lost its votebank,especially in the coastal and Rayalaseema regions. And one cannot write it off in Telangana either,notwithstanding its drubbing in the recent by-elections. Its organisational structure is still strong and the local leadership is down,but not out. Its social base hasnt seen much erosion,even after long years in opposition. The TRS in Telangana and the PRP in the coastal region are beginning to be seen as adjuncts to Congress. It will be a tall order for them to rescue the Congress in these regions. Jagan might ultimately help his fathers one-time associate and subsequent sworn enemy,Chandrababu Naidu,to regain lost political ground.
The writer is director,Centre for Public Policy Studies,Hyderabad express@expressindia.com
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