Opinion Ram Madhav writes: In an unstable world, India has a stable partner

The ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit in 2012 marked the 10th anniversary of the summit-level partnership and 20 years of sectoral partnership. The relationship was upgraded to a “strategic partnership” at this meeting. The year also marked two decades of India’s Look East Policy, mooted first by PM P V Narasimha Rao in the early 1990s. Although the partnership with ASEAN has progressed since then, it has never acquired the required momentum. India largely remained west-oriented in its economic and strategic ties. During an address in Chennai in July 2011, Hillary Clinton, the visiting US Secretary of State, called upon India to “not just to look East, but to engage East and act East”. That perhaps prompted the Indian leadership to upgrade ties to a strategic level. Several commemorative events like the ASEAN-India car rally and the naval expedition by INS Sudarshini to ASEAN countries marked that new relationship.

The real impetus came after Modi became Prime Minister in 2014. Look East was transformed into Act East, and the geopolitical, trade, and developmental ties with individual member nations of ASEAN gained new vigour. Incidentally, Modi is the only world leader to have attended nine out of the 19 East Asia Summits held in the last two decades. As the decade of 2010s saw rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific between the big powers — the US and China — Modi understood the key role ASEAN could play along with India in ensuring peace and stability in the region. As the leader of the lone Indian Ocean power in the Quad, Modi emphasised that the group should strive not only for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP), but a free, open and “inclusive” Indo-Pacific (FOIIP). Underscoring the importance of ASEAN to India’s vision for that “inclusive” Indo-Pacific region, he emphasised in his important address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in 2018 that “ASEAN has been and will be central to its future”.

Modi’s consistent efforts at strengthening India’s relations with ASEAN were reflected in the year-long celebrations of the 25 years of dialogue partnership in 2017 and the upgrading of ASEAN-India ties to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in 2022. The attendance of leaders of all 10 ASEAN countries at the Republic Day parade in Delhi in January 2018 marked a high point in the relationship.

The ASEAN leadership was, therefore, looking forward to Modi’s participation at this year’s summit. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, undoubtedly the most statesmanlike leader in the region after Lee Kuan Yew, enjoys a great personal bond with Modi. India was the first South Asian country he visited after becoming Prime Minister and he held extensive consultations with Modi, which helped restore stability in the bilateral relationship after a brief period of tumult.

At a conference attended by delegates from ASEAN and India in Kuala Lumpur last week, I saw enormous enthusiasm over the visit of the Indian Prime Minister. Minister Liew Chin Tong, a close aide of PM Anwar, spoke at length about expectations from India and made a light-hearted, yet profound comment, saying, “Moving from the world of globalisation being presented as McDonald’s plus Coca-Cola, I hope we will see more à la carte choices, with diverse options like dal, chilli, and curry. Mind you, a world of just McDonald’s and dim sum is no good either.”

Unfortunately, domestic commitments are holding Modi back from attending the summit in person this year. But India needs to appreciate the growing urge in ASEAN for enhanced ties, given not only the historic bonds of the relationship but also the evolving and unstable multipolar world scenario. China has a greater presence in the region. But it also has maritime disputes with several ASEAN nations, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Trump will be in Asia, having lost the goodwill of his friends in the region. Unlike during Trump 1.0 when he enjoyed good ties with Modi and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the US President has begun his second term on a coarse note with almost all the important Asian nations. The ASEAN leadership, too, is wary of ties with the US.

In the new world taking shape, multilateralism will be guided by regional and minilateral groupings. India is the most influential power in the Indo-Pacific region after the big two. ASEAN is the linchpin of regional stability and security. Together, they have a greater role to play in realising the dream Modi articulated in Singapore in 2018: “Asia of rivalry will hold us all back. Asia of cooperation will shape this century.”

The writer, president, India Foundation, is with the BJP