Opinion In Pakistan 2024 polls, round one goes to Imran Khan and PTI

The party was barred from contesting the elections and lost its symbol, but PTI-backed independent candidates have seen a surge of support from voters, helped by social media campaigns and door-to-door campaigning

February 11, 2024 08:07 PM IST First published on: Feb 11, 2024 at 08:07 PM IST

On February 8, votes were cast for the National Assembly (NA) and four Provincial Assemblies of Pakistan in a largely peaceful manner, barring some tension around delays and logistical irregularities. The internet and mobile services were shut before polling began with the stated aim of maintaining safety and security. By late evening, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the army congratulated each other for orderly elections. Around the same time, the real trouble started building up, whereby polling station-wise results started getting tabulated. These could be accessed by candidates as Form- 45, but neither returning officers (ROs) nor the ECP were seen doing anything to compile and declare official results for individual seats. The ECP was mandated to declare results on February 9 by 2 am, but it blamed the delay on the suspension of internet and mobile services.

Soon enough allegations about the rigging of results started circulating, with videos and specific details from polling stations on social media. Neither Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) nor Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) demanded timely declaration of results or made any attempts to publicise their leads or seats. Strongly demanding the results from ECP, only the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) teams went into overdrive by tasking polling agents and supporters to ensure getting signed copies of Form 45 and following up with ROs till the results were compiled and declared. The PTI-backed candidates have fought elections as independents but with full acknowledgement of their affiliation to Imran Khan.

While official leads or later results were not in sight, PTI teams and many media groups started compiling results based on polling stations counting and started updating results in public domain. The process has continued since the evening of February 8. The leads and results indicated that, against all odds, the PTI-backed independents were heading towards a simple majority in the NA, a big win in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and were ahead of the PML-N in Punjab. The trends also suggested that PPP was emerging as the third largest party in the NA, heading for a big win in Sindh, bettering its performance in Punjab and was marginally ahead of PML-N in Baluchistan.

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The official results started trickling in from the morning of February 9 and soon differences started emerging in the results, especially the number of seats shown against PTI-backed independent candidates. The ECP has declared only 93 PTI-backed candidates as winners, while based on collation of original Form 45, on February 10, PTI claimed 170 seats in NA and its confidence in forming governments in KPK and Punjab.

Interestingly, on the evening of February 9, with only 60 seats of National Assembly in hand by then, Nawaz Sharif delivered a victory speech and publicly tasked his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif to connect with Asif Zardari of PPP and other parties to explore alliances to form governments. While the PML-N, PPP and other parties are looking for “arrangements” to form governments, PTI and some smaller parties are gearing up to challenge the results that are different from the compilation of Form 45 results. They are also planning to hold protests across big cities.

There were reports that PTI-backed candidates could join the Jamaat-e-Islami or the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) to become part of a party for legal purposes. However, given difficulties in getting proportional reserved seats with such moves, PTI is arguing that although it was barred from contesting the elections and using its election symbol, it remained a legitimate party and hence candidates could join PTI.

The elections have thrown up serious issues about legitimacy of results, complexities of government formation and potential court battles. The government formation might take longer than expected and may still throw up a national government and a Punjab government mired in election controversies that may keep them busy for a long time.

In a surprising move, reportedly in the absence of prosecutors, an anti-terrorism court of Rawalpindi has granted bail to Imran Khan and Shah Mehmood Qureshi in 12 cases pertaining to the May 9 incidents of violence which were allegedly directed against the army. Is this an acknowledgement of the people’s power that the Imran Khan-led PTI has harnessed or an “olive branch” from some quarters? The development has added yet another layer to the political picture in Pakistan.

The coming days and weeks would throw up expected and unexpected scenarios. However, dazzling social media strategies, “daring” door-to-door campaigns, especially by women workers, and aggressive communication with voters about the power of their vote have paid off well for the PTI. Despite major obstructions to its electoral battles, it has emerged as the clear winner in Round One. Interestingly, so far, the only vindication from outside has come in the form of a tweet from a well-known Taliban account hailing Imran as “the real leader of Pakistan”.

The writer is a security analyst and former Director General of Police