Opinion Ocean’s Nineteen

No one in the vast littoral questions the IOR-ARC’s mission to renew the regional identity of the Indian Ocean that thrived until the end of the 18th century. Some,though,would want the organisation to find a name that is easier on the tongue (Indocom,for Indian Ocean Community,is our offering).

But few in the region’s political and business classes are even aware of the existence of the IOR-ARC. And those who study regional institutions have every reason to put the IOR-ARC at the very top of the list of “failed organisations”. Why,then,is South Block trying to whip up some enthusiasm for the “moribund” IOR-ARC? The political decision in Delhi a couple of years ago,to revive the IOR-ARC,was driven by a number of factors.

For decades,the Indian Ocean was a boutique theme that excited a tiny section of Delhi’s strategic community. It included navalists who were nostalgic about the undivided subcontinent’s primacy in the Indian Ocean under the Raj. Delhi’s diplomatic rhetoric was focused on getting great powers out of the Indian Ocean. With the Indian economy turning inwards,India’s historic commercial ties with the Indian Ocean atrophied. Political Delhi forced the Indian armed forces into a prolonged isolation and decreed against military contact with other states in the region and beyond.

Although Jawaharlal Nehru and K.M. Panikkar wrote about the importance of regional cooperation in the Indian Ocean in the 1940s,Delhi had little to offer the littoral in the decades after Independence. After the Cold War,the idea of Indian Ocean regionalism presented itself again to Delhi. India,however,was a hesitant globaliser in the 1990s and its security establishment was uncomfortable with the prospect of discussing political issues in multilateral forums. India then actively limited the scope of the IOR-ARC charter.

If caution was the watchword in the 1990s,activism is the current imperative. As India’s economic momentum picked up in the last decade,the Indian Ocean began to loom large. India’s trade with the littoral has grown eight-fold over ten years to reach $156 billion last year. India’s energy and economic security is now linked inextricably to the stability of the Indian Ocean littoral.

Beyond India’s own expanding economic engagement,the region has begun to reconnect to itself. Unlike in the last two centuries,when the rich natural resources of the littoral powered the industrial growth of the West,today they head increasingly in the direction of the economies in the East,including China,Japan and Korea. Between 2001 and 2010,intra-regional trade in the Indian Ocean has tripled from $ 1.1. trillion to $ 3.5 trillion. It now constitutes a quarter of total global commerce.

It is not the IOR-ARC but market forces that have boosted the new regional integration by rediscovering the natural synergies in the region. But markets alone can’t help sustain the emerging economic growth in the region. Governments must step in to create effective regional mechanisms to deepen trade and security cooperation. Given the vast size of the region,the geographically dispersed membership and the diversity of regimes,the IOR-ARC will not be able to construct a single free trade area for the whole region. Trade liberalisation is already moving forward in different parts of the littoral. The IOR-ARC,then,is rightly focused on trade and investment facilitation. This involves the region-wide mobilisation of political support for a range of reforms,from simplifying customs procedures to modernising infrastructure.

The second priority is maritime security. Although the IOR-ARC was initially hesitant to discuss security issues,it has begun to recognise that there can be no prosperity in the region without peace and stability. While the littoral countries must take larger responsibilities for securing the Indian Ocean,it makes no sense to frame it in terms of “regional versus extra-regional” powers. The IOR-ARC must necessarily engage the major powers of the world to build a secure Indian Ocean. China and Japan are already “dialogue partners” for the IOR-ARC and the United States now wants to associate itself with the organisation. Even as it integrates with itself,the Indian Ocean has acquired much significance for the rest of the world. Its resources,markets and seas matter to the entire world. The littoral can’t return to the centuries when it was a closed geopolitical space.

The IOR-ARC’s progress in the next decade depends on the kind of leadership that Delhi is willing to provide. As the largest economy in the region,India must strive to become the engine of growth for the entire Indian Ocean. As one of the most capable militaries in the Indian Ocean and one that has good relations with most regional and extra-regional actors,Delhi must help create a sound basis for regional security cooperation.

Delhi has signalled the political will to promote Indian Ocean regionalism. If it can follow through with consequential actions,there is a reasonable chance the IOR-ARC will not remain an ugly duckling a decade from now.

The writer is a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation,Delhi and a contributing editor for ‘The Indian Express’ express@expressindia.com