Opinion Not an act of desperation

The Darbha valley attack has occurred when the Maoists are cornered by paramilitary operations and development. Does it mark a new strategy?

May 27, 2013 04:09 AM IST First published on: May 27, 2013 at 04:09 AM IST

The Darbha valley attack has occurred when the Maoists are cornered by paramilitary operations and development. Does it mark a new strategy?THE unprecedented ambush by Maoists on a Congress party convoy in the Darbha valley of Chhattisgarh is a grim reminder of the governments repeated failure to measure up to the Naxals ability to spring a deadly surprise. That this attack has happened when the Naxals are admittedly badly hit by the anti-Naxal paramilitary operations begun in 2009 and the governments development blitz,makes it all the more significant.

The most important and immediate takeaway is that the Naxals are down but not out,and that they have perhaps been restructuring their operational strategy. The Maoists internal assessment,as also interviews with some of the surrendered senior Naxals,have clearly brought out the fact that the top Naxal leadership is deeply disconcerted by the governments blitz on the twin fronts of development and security. After some severe setbacks,such as the death of over 75 CRPF men in the Dantewada ambush in 2010,the security forces had slowly started making inroads into Naxal heartlands across the red corridor,taking those areas away from Maoist clutches. They were able to penetrate Abujmaad that had never seen government presence before.

In Gadchiroli,after the 2009 killings of over 55 police personnel,Naxals had managed to mock the state machinery with impunity,forcing sarpanchs to resign,holding kangaroo courts and killing civilians at will. But with the police taking charge firmly over the last few months,the Naxals are on the backfoot.

In states like Jharkhand and West Bengal,Maoists have been considerably weakened. The only state where they still have a field day is perhaps Orissa. Intelligence reports suggest that,with the heat on,Naxals have vacated most of their Maad strongholds and concentrated on the Chhattisgarh-Orissa border. Interestingly,the Darbha valley is part of this new Naxal haven. Ground and intelligence forces should have concentrated more on this area.

What cannot be dismissed is that the Naxals dared to carry out Saturdays attack despite all constraints and knowing too well that it will strengthen the governments resolve against them. They must have had Andhra Pradesh in mind,when the government had unleashed its entire might on Maoists after they targeted then chief minister Chandrababu Naidu. The result was that they were almost completely wiped out. They would have guessed that more forces will now be deployed. Yet,they did it.

Also,this cannot be seen as an act of desperation by some local guerilla unit. Such a big attack could not have been resorted to without the top Naxal leadership vetting it. Nor could it have possibly been a headstrong last-ditch bid to eliminate Mahendra Karma,with others just collateral casualties. The Salwa Judum has petered out and the Naxals could have waited for their chance. It would also be folly to presume that the Naxals do not understand the consequences of such an act in terms of incurring anger against themselves and sympathy towards their victims.

So,do they have a new strategy that our intelligence machinery has no inkling of yet? Will they be targeting the mainstream political leadership too along with security forces? Is this aimed at restricting the mobility of mainstream politicians among the people? Treating this incident as an act of desperation would be an exercise in complacency. Delving deep into the strategy behind it is key to any further success the government can hope to achieve.

vivek.deshpande@expressindia.com