Opinion Jagan on its mind

That AP is crucial to the UPA is a cliche. But now it is more apt than ever before. It has,crucially,42 parliamentary seats — it contributed 29 seats to UPA 1 and 33 to UPA 2. The Congress government in the state is also its only single-party regime in south India.

At a time when the Congress is collapsing in poll after poll in the north and when it prides itself in being a party that is vibrant in the south,AP acts as its cinch. No other big state,except Rajasthan,is really in its thrall at the moment. The importance of AP to the Congress,therefore,cannot be overstated. The party’s strategy here will have national repercussions and will provide vital clues to how the Congress intends to handle itself in the near future.

After the 2009 Lok Sabha elections,many thought it was just a matter of time before the Congress — re-elected with over 200 seats and with its allies much weaker than before — started the process of mergers and acquisitions,of getting parties like the NCP to return to the parent party. Jagan Reddy was the first to rudely reverse such expectations,splitting from the Congress in the showcase state itself.

The emergence of Jagan happened after YSR’s death in an air crash in 2009. From then on,the Congress’s troubles in Andhra have paralleled those nationally. In December 2009,the announcement on Telangana was made to cleverly change the playground and cut into the perceived sympathy for Jagan. It may have worked well for the Congress to postpone the Jagan conundrum for a couple of years,but ennui set in in the government,chipping and eroding any positive sense electors may have had about the party’s rule in the state. Meanwhile,Jagan,far from being annihilated,set a record margin when he won as MP. And now he is considered important enough for the establishment to be on his case — literally.

Nobody holds up Jagan as the good guy in this rapidly unfolding saga. With AP flush with money and opportunities,he is possibly the bearer of many blessings showered by industrialists anxious to get richer in a hurry.

Over the years,as the state doled out favours and introduced several social welfare schemes,which,by the way,enriched many private contractors,there was a lot to gain and successive regimes made a buck — more so the all-powerful YSR. He combined his political skills with an uncanny ability to virtually touch every family in the state with at least one of his famous schemes. Whispers about wealth amassed in the guise of “social legislation” briefly turned into something on record as a desperate Chandrababu Naidu came out with a publication detailing how the “state was being looted”. But the Congress,then basking in the luxury of the seats YSR was able to provide and the immense legroom the mighty satrap gave the party as it adjusted to troublesome coalition politics at the Centre,just steamrolled the allegations. All was well. Doing the right thing was unnecessary,as it was all going the party’s way.

With YSR’s death,things changed drastically for the Congress. His distraught and inconsolable son threw a political tantrum within days of his bereavement. Jagan considered himself to be the heir. He refused to be accommodated quietly,or go away. Then,suddenly,what was kosher when YSR was alive,and what seemed to be serving the direct interests of the party,was enough to alert the most trusted ally of the coalition,the CBI. The CBI then charged him in several unrelated cases and saw it proper to finally jail him in a disproportionate assets case. How assiduous the CBI has been in other similar cases is a matter of public record. It will be hard to establish that the CBI is acting under undue pressure,but justice certainly appears most selective and is not seen to be done.

Ruling parties like to,and often should,dismiss verdicts of by-elections. The Congress could also do the same if the results are adverse. But anxious to stem the tide of defections and scared of the prospect of a rout in the polls in the non-Telangana region or of Jagan inheriting the mantle of YSR,it has decided to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Jagan’s mother Y.S. Vijaya,who now represents Pulivendula,which was once held by YSR,is now on a padayatra and could touch the all too familiar emotional chords of the Andhra electorate. Apart from Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra,even Telangana,which is not going to the June polls,is not bubbling over with enthusiasm for the Congress’s continued rule under Kiran Kumar Reddy,thanks to price rise and the blow-hot-blow-cold attitude towards the statehood question. Since the Congress’s landslide in 2009,much has certainly changed and expectations soured.

The last time Andhra felt slighted by a perceived insult to its chief minister on an airport tarmac — it led to the subsequent emergence of the TDP — there were consequences for national politics. The imprint lasted for at least 20 years. This time if the ruling party again believes it can get away with taking Jagan on,by insinuating that what had happened when YSR was around was okay but not anymore,then it may be in for a rude shock.

The ongoing mango season in AP may hold some lessons for the Congress. While other proud mango-producing states like Uttar Pradesh are arrogant about the sweetness quotient of their mangoes (and UP is a state where we saw the Congress exhaust its political muscle),in Andhra the argument has been in favour of flavour. Ever since 1940,hybridisation has been practised here and even nizams realised that ham-handed techniques don’t work. Mangoes are cross-bred with refined

techniques and harvested with

patience for some stunning results. As far as counting day goes,for the Congress,it may be an experience far removed from biting into a juicy Banganapalli.