Opinion India, international community must lend support to Myanmar’s Spring Revolution

Myanmar’s struggle is marked by a savage crackdown on what started out as a Gandhian civil disobedience movement led by doctors, teachers and government servants followed by peaceful, imaginative, witty, colourful and widespread street protests. These have since spontaneously erupted and metamorphosed into armed guerrilla warfare waged by hundreds of local “peoples defence forces” (PDFs) in the Bamar heartland and the hills populated by Myanmar’s ethnic communities, against military rule and repression. “Silent” strikes, processions, sloganeering, prayers, placards and revolutionary songs continue alongside.

The PDFs have been joined, supported and trained by long-standing, new or reinvigorated Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) using weaponry they had or could improvise, capture or acquire in nearby arms markets with little international help, including recently, drones, against the full force of the Myanmar Army armed by Russia, China and others. The latter’s actions have ranged from intimidation, arrests and violence by security forces and vigilante groups to arson, scorched earth policies and the use of artillery and air power.

It is a war by the Myanmar Army against its own people untainted by “majoritarian”, ethnic, sectarian, religious, linguistic, “left”, “right” or “communist” motivations or labels. After nearly 50 years of xenophobic military rule from 1962 to 2010, and 10 years of relative political and media freedoms, social, technological, economic and international opportunities opened up under the military-backed but reformist USDP government of U Thein Sein, and the opposition NLD. The people of Myanmar, especially the youth, are willing to sacrifice everything not to go back to the lost years of military rule. The 2021 coup was the proverbial last straw that broke the camel’s back.

The human toll of the confrontation has been horrendous: Thousands killed (ranging from nearly 3,000 to 30,000, depending on how rigorous the count), tens of thousands arrested, four executed (including a member of parliament), resistance hubs, dwellings and shelters in urban areas and villages burnt, shelled or bombed including along the Indian border, and an estimated million-and-a-half, displaced including some 50,000 or more refugees in Mizoram and Manipur.

In response to the coup, ousted parliamentarians, mainstream pro-democracy and ethnic political parties, and a variety of civil society organisations and fighting forces have grouped around a Committee of ousted parliamentarians, a National Unity Consultative Committee and a National Unity Government that have drafted and adopted a Charter for a Federal, Democratic Union. The Charter seeks to restructure Myanmar from a centralised state dominated by its Bamar majority, to a multi-ethnic, democratic federal union based on equality. Despite some strains between the NLD and ethnic constituents, that solidarity, although fragile, has held so far.

Although the Tatmadaw regard themselves as custodians of the unity and integrity of the Union, the effect of their repression has been the opposite. Despite weaknesses in the opposition, the Tatmadaw have not been able to impose stability as they did after 1990.

According to conservative estimates, over 50 per cent of Myanmar territory is out of the Tatmadaw’s control, forcing them to use air power in some areas. In several areas, PDFs, EAOs and others have set up their own rudimentary administrative and justice systems and provision of basic services including schooling and internet. Real power is subtly shifting to the more powerful EAOs.

The Myanmar Army has responded to these challenges in the only way it knows — extending the state of emergency for another six months beyond constitutional provisions, expanding martial law to 43 townships across nine provinces and trying to gerrymander new elections ostensibly planned for August 2023 through a proportional representation system. This gives it a better chance of cobbling together a loyalist government through a “king’s” party that can fulfil General Min Aung Hlaing’s rumoured presidential ambitions.

The Tatmadaw is at a cul-de-sac. It lacks political imagination and holds no future for the youth of Myanmar. Its actions will likely push the resistance further to violence against junta targets including administration officials and family members, as seems to be happening. This should be avoided at all costs as it can only lead to spiralling violence and a hijacking of what could be a genuine revolution in Asia. What is happening in Myanmar should, therefore, be of vital, not incidental, importance to India and the region. Yet India’s response, like that of the region and international community, has been wanting.

The writer is senior visiting fellow, CPR, and former Ambassador to Myanmar, Afghanistan and Syria