Opinion Suhas Palshikar writes: For Opposition, building INDIA will require politics, not arithmetic

Obviously, elections come first. It may be argued that the parties that came together in Patna last month have exactly the same vote share as that of the BJP in 2019. This makes the prospects of the fight full of possibilities. Yet, without important parties like BSP, BRS (previously TRS), YSRCP and BJD, any “united” Opposition is bound to be limited in its reach and strength. In order to ignore these parties, Congress will have to perform exceptionally well in UP, Telangana, Andhra and Odisha, which is a tall order. Supporters of INDIA — as the new front is named — may argue that these parties have themselves chosen to keep away from the unity efforts. True as it may be, that gap is going to make the task of the new front somewhat uphill.

While the BJP would want to bank on a “national” or pan-Indian face and platform, the Opposition should know that even today, state-level contests make and unmake national politics. Therefore, it will be necessary to bring on board parties that have kept away from the current unity efforts. The four states listed above (even if one assumes that BSP is confined to UP), comprise 143 seats of the Lok Sabha, 53 of which were won by these four parties. This should underscore the importance of negotiating with these parties on an urgent basis.

Even otherwise, a united Opposition will have to undertake at least three tasks in the months to come. Like in Patna, at Bengaluru, too, the Opposition parties put up a good show but failed to deliver much beyond a general statement. So, what are these three tasks waiting to be undertaken for Opposition unity to become a credible force?

In the first place, its politics has to be calibrated in such a manner that the majority of the partners have stakes in the unity efforts. Barring Congress and notionally the communists, this alliance is mostly dominated by state parties and their fight against the BJP is at the same time a fight against a domineering Centre. Even Congress has realised over the last 10 years that federalism is not only a lofty principle of the Constitution, it is an important agent in the survival of the Opposition, particularly a protection to Opposition parties running state governments. Therefore, the new front needs to come up with a programme to protect and rejuvenate federalism zealously.

The emphasis of the Opposition on democracy is indeed justified, but if it is not to remain an abstract beating stick, it is necessary that the spirit of democracy is expressed through the ideas and practices associated with federalism. This would assure the state parties of the importance of the alliance and, at the popular level, the new front will be able to reconnect regional and national identities in a robust manner.

Secondly, the united Opposition needs to come up with a programme or policy outline that would attract the voter. There is often the lure of a catch-all centrism when it comes to socio-economic policies. That may not help the new front because the BJP has already occupied that space. The Opposition will have to clearly define which social segments it specifically seeks to align with. The media and the idea of middle classes may dis-incentivise a sharply cleavage-based policy position. But such a position is more likely to win over the Dalits, Adivasis, small farmers, urban poor and the vast numbers of unorganised earners in the service sector.

This is, of course, not a plea for a traditional leftist platform or for the overused “social justice” platform of the 1990s. The Opposition will need to come up with a more attractive set of policies in order to convince the voters that this front offers them something real and in the near term, rather than platitudes about an unknown future. The so-called middle classes too are deeply layered and a large part of these, while identifying as “middle” classes in aspirational and perception terms, actually await policy support to fulfil their aspirations. Therefore, the Opposition has its task cut out: In order to respond to the BJP’s construct of the pan-Hindu vote, it has to cultivate a sharply defined base relevant to socio-economic realities.

Three, the Opposition will need clarity on why it is keen on displacing the BJP. A coalition to jointly defeat the ruling party is quite understandable in a dominant party system, but it is necessary to convince themselves that only by coming together can their survival be ensured. Beyond their own survival, however, the Opposition will need clarity about what it is that they are opposed to.

Mere Modi-baiting is not going to be a convincing answer. The BJP’s politics runs on three narratives — an authoritarian personality cult, narrative of vikas and a less visible narrative of Hindutva and exclusion. The Opposition will need a realistic and intelligible critic of the former two without focusing on the persona of Modi and a quiet sub-text of inclusion. Only then, the language of “idea of India” will resonate with the voter.

The caution with which the Opposition parties have treaded from Patna to Bengaluru suggests that the parties themselves are aware of these tasks — beyond seat-sharing and ego massaging, they have to build a vision. Conclaves are fine, but a lot of thinking and political labour will be required between Bengaluru and Mumbai. For that, the new front must remember that the business of shaping “INDIA” is not a matter of arithmetic but of politics.

The writer, based at Pune, taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics.