Opinion Girish Kuber writes: Election Commission’s endorsement of Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena may hurt the BJP more than it helps

It is now imperative for the BJP to keep the Shinde faction politically not only alive but healthy and relevant, too. This is not as simple as it may appear. Having used Shinde and his men to topple friend-turned-foe Uddhav Thackeray’s government, the Shinde faction’s utility is more or less over for the BJP. This is evident as BJP units at various places in Maharashtra have started expressing their discomfort over the party’s new-found love for the Shinde faction. A case in point is Thane, the place where Shinde has strong moorings. The BJP’s connection with Thane dates back to the late Rambhau Mhalagi, who was an accommodative and compassionate face of the BJP of yesteryear. Since his demise in 1982, the party, with the help of the RSS, created its own network that kept challenging Shiv Sena — which, in Thane, was incidentally led by Shinde.

For the BJP’s “woe is the middle-class” approach, Shinde’s style of politics was too hot to handle. But it was compelled to be accommodative, thanks to Pramod Mahajan’s politics of looking at the larger picture. (Read the Sena-BJP government in Maharashtra and keeping the Sena on board at the national level as well.) His success in maintaining the Sena-BJP pact kept the differences between the two Hindutvavadi siblings under control. Even though both were in an alliance, the BJP’s existence in the crucial Thane district — that sends as many as 24 MLAs to 288-member state assembly — depended on challenging the Sena, led by Shinde.

Now, suddenly, the BJP is being asked to live with someone whose politics it has hated all along. “Politics is the art of the impossible” is only a truism from those who gain from the manoeuvres such an art takes. For the rest, it is bitter coexistence. And it’s getting more bitter by the day as the Maharashtra BJP tries to contain rebellions: The BJP’s Thane unit has gone to the extent of announcing its intention to put up candidates against Shinde and his people.

With these differences coming to the fore, the BJP is realising that the Shinde faction is far from an asset to take on a three-party Opposition. There are quite a few reasons for this.

The Shinde faction, barring the man himself, consists of rookies and fly-by-night politicians. They were well suited for Shiv Sena’s lumpen politics but are absolute misfits in the BJP’s cadre-based organisation with long-term vision. Barring Shinde, most of his people cannot see beyond five years. It’s not that the BJP wasn’t aware of these constraints when it decided to partner with Shinde in getting rid of the Uddhav Thackeray-led three-party government. It went ahead because its sole aim was to dethrone Thackeray. Crowning Shinde as CM was never part of its original script. At best, it might have been a footnote.

Much to the BJP’s dismay, that footnote, the side story, has assumed the central role in Maharashtra politics. It threatens the party’s game plan on more than one front. The BJP would have been happier to see Shinde and his men getting desired traction in Mumbai and the rest of Maharashtra. The absence of it is adding to the BJP’s burden, which it will have to carry till it faces the first real test — the BMC elections. The longevity of the Shinde-BJP partnership will come in for some hard questioning during the municipal elections in Mumbai and 13 other cities. The prize, needless to say, is the Mumbai corporation. At over Rs 52,000 crore, the BMC’s budget is larger than some smaller states. More than funds, the BMC symbolises the Sena’s influence, which the BJP wants to quell once and for all. That’s understandable, considering the anger the BJP has towards the Sena for playing spoiler in 2019. The crucial question is: Will Shinde be of any help in fulfilling the BJP’s ambition? Even the seasoned pollsters won’t venture an answer.

The EC’s decision to side with Shinde, and by extension the BJP, is likely to result in cementing the Opposition even further. It will not be surprising to see the EC order bring the Sena, NCP, and Congress closer. If it does so, it’s anybody’s guess which way the political battle in Maharashtra may swing. Add to this the Sena’s ability to market its victimhood. This may seem counter-intuitive but the party that’s known for its street-smart, aggressive tactics also has a legacy of selling a politics of pauperism. How Delhi is denying the “sons of the soil” their legitimate due has been the Thackeray-led Sena’s most successful political theme. With the EC decision, it has already started playing out this tune even more loudly. Will Uddhav Thackeray be able to sell the leftover Sena’s time-tested tactics yet again? And more importantly, will there be enough takers — as there were in the past — for the Thackerays?

The answer to these and many more questions lie in the BMC elections, which the incumbent government would like to delay as much as possible with the hope that the sympathy, if any, for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena withers away. What is also awaited is the Supreme Court decision on the defection matter. It will be hazardous to take a guess on the SC decision, but if it doesn’t take a kinder view as the EC did, politics in the state is in for another shock.

Welcome to Maharashtra — the new homeland of murky politics.

The writer is Editor, Loksatta