Opinion Coloured shirts

There’s just one glitch in the “golden” boy’s rosy story: he wasn’t elected to power by the people; his was an accession by parliamentary vote. His political fate has never rested in the hands of the average Thai but that’s about to change. Vejjajiva has called for early elections,slotted for July 3 and approved in a royal decree by the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej — and Thailand’s fractious politics may well experience yet another perilous test.

But Vejjajiva has been quick in action. An 11-member election commission has been appointed,campaign routes have been drawn up and Vejjajiva,it seems,is determined to win the hearts and minds of all Thais; thus his publicly stated policy to woo the north.

This when there’s a joke in Thailand about Vejjajiva,that he needs a passport to travel to the north of his country and media reports document his speedy visits to the north done only by his chopper. It is said that the young premier is wary of the northerners,the supporters of his arch-foe,Thaksin Shinawatra.

The battle for Thailand continues to be shadowed by the presence of its ex-premier,Shinawatra. A self-made billionaire charged with fraud,he continues to rouse support in Thailand,from Dubai,where he is in self-imposed exile. It is the north,impoverished and politically distant,that accounts for 52 per cent of Thailand’s 67 million people and it is they who can tilt the vote. The northerners have traditionally viewed the south and Bangkok,and the Democrats,as agents of the elite,thus their support for Thaksin and his proxies. Note that since Thaksin’s ouster in a bloodless coup and before Vejjajiva’s administration,four governments run by Thaksin proxies came and went. Now,as he speaks to his supporters,the Red Shirts,over Skype,he has flouted a new name: Yingluck Shinawatra.

In a bizarre twist in the Thai political saga,Yingluck,Thaksin’s younger sister,is to head the opposition. Criticism has flooded in from Vejjajiva’s quarters: that the beautiful,wide-eyed,Chanel wearing heiress has no political training. Yingluck and her team have retorted that she’ll be briefed on political and economic matters and a think-tank has been offering her extensive coaching on Thai politics.

The numbers are tilted in the Shinawatra camp’s favour. The premier’s party — the Democrats — hasn’t won an election at the ballot box since 1986. Polls carried out indicate a Pheu Thai lead of 3.36 per cent,and pundits predict a close race.

Strangely enough,Thailand has warmed to Vejjajiva. His cabinet has pushed through a $2.2 billion budget with populist projects,is offering a zero-interest mortgage scheme and has made populism its campaigning mantra.

The Shinawatras have followed suit: they promise to issue free government-issued credit cards to farmers and taxi drivers,a doubling of the daily minimum wage and slashing corporate taxes and a policy to battle the burgeoning drug scene from the “first day in office”.

But Thailand’s politics has for the past few years been punctuated and deflated by the people on the Bangkok street,by their whims. Avenues,shopping malls,government offices and the international airport have been brought to a grinding halt by the squabbles between the Red and Yellow Shirt contingents. Both Red and Yellow Shirts have announced street battles should their candidate not win.

Yet one can hope that the election will take the battle away from the streets into the political arena,but there’s another hiccup in the system.

Politics in Thailand has always been subservient to the king. It is the country’s political elite’s influence over the king and their reluctance to make peace with the popular mandate that has allowed for and fuelled the divisions on the street. A Thaksin victory will be unacceptable to the Bangkok elite.

With the Bangkok elite’s irritation with the one-person-one-vote system and a politically involved king,should he or the Bangkok elite wish,the entire system can be rewritten and remodelled. For this entrenchment of power,there is no quick fix. With Thaksin’s sister in the running,the next couple of months are likely to keep on edge a country that once was a shiny example of Southeast Asian success.