Opinion Charting the monsoon
Rain or shine,policy is as important as weather
The monsoon forecast as normal has led to a range of opinions ranging from happiness bordering on complacency to downright cynicism. The critics are wrong in saying that there are better models and correct in implying that we dont know enough. There is the recurrence of statements that so and so has computers or access to satellite data and does forecasting better. In a CII-sponsored committee we had gone through this in some detail and while,in a particular year,there is the possibility of one or the other think-tank claiming better performance,with hindsight there was no evidence to say that the met model has been consistently bettered. On the other hand,the met and other models are statistical models and we dont really have a solid explanation of the monsoon and a physical model based on such a model.
It will cost us a lot of money to do that,and since that is critical to India,we should spend that money; but that is another story. So we have a model of statistical association with many variables,and quantitative forecasts are possible with that. They used to be kept under wraps,but when I was their minister I told them to release the forecasts in advance. They did,and when the attacks began,we defended them in Parliament saying,sure there are limitations,but this is the best we can do and meteorologists and statisticians are like the guys nextdoor doing their job. They have detailed explanations of what they do. Now both the monsoon and the GDP forecasts,where much the same problems are there,get attention although the snipers persist.
This years forecast is comforting. The average is good. The range of error is smaller. It is extremely unlikely that we will get the kind of bad monsoon where more than half the meteorological regions have extreme scarcity of rainfall or a severe drought. But an average monsoon can still be possible with a lot of variability at the regional level. We had made the point in this column last year that a met drought and an agricultural drought are two different things.
Even though life is not very bad this year,there could be and probably will be many surprises for agriculture. For the crop calendar there is a distribution of rainfall through the weeks of the monsoon from May to the middle of September and there is the distribution of precipitation across the met regions. There are also combinations of the two. In fact,we have been seeing odd behaviour. Last year,when the averages were all right,the spread through time was very odd and that meant paddy cultivation got jinxed at many places and there was late sowing of inferior cereals and pulses. To an extent,the excellent showing in these crops with 20-plus per cent performance is on account of the weather although the scale of improvement suggests that policies had a lot to do with it also.
In a sense,it becomes difficult to separate the policy effects from the weather effects. If there is late rainfall you can bemoan the climate change effect and sit back or you can put in place contingency plans,like sowing an alternative crop. It is all very well to say so but you also have to follow up with seeds,technological advice and so on. Asked what to do this year,I would say do what you did last year,because a good management principle is that if you do well,repeat that story. But also prepare for contingencies.
All of a sudden crops in lightly irrigated areas and what were called inferior cereals have got importance for health and feed reasons,and also mixed crops like pulses and oilseeds. These grow in unpredictable areas and if you have a contingency plan,more power to you. Punjab,Haryana,western UP and now Gujarat with SSP will take care of themselves. Concentrate on the so-called backward regions which gave you the great push. I dont believe the pessimists who live in the past. There is a definite break in our agriculture and it is worth cultivating instead of giving up and saying that only 3 per cent is possible. My information is that Krishi Bhavan has such a contingency plan if the agricultural monsoon plays truant,and more power to them.
The writer,a former Union minister,is chairman,Institute of Rural Management,Anand
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