Opinion Burmas ballot
A short guide to the most important fortnight in the countrys recent history
Burma and democracy,the country and the concept,make for strange bedfellows. Yet,the junta has slotted a date for Burmas highly anticipated exercise in democracy. On November 7,the Burmese will make their way to the ballot box for the first time after a two-decade hiatus. The elections,already a matter of controversy,from the halls at the United Nations in New York to the isolated home of Aung San Suu Kyi,are a promise from the junta to the displeased international community. A promise of reform.
The elections are a crucial component of the so-called Roadmap to Democracy ushered in due to international condemnation in 2003. Under the roadmap,Burma is to effectively hand over power from its military leadership to a civilian government. Appropriate measures have thus been taken. Generals have hung their military fatigues and masquerade in civilian clothes under the two state-sponsored political parties: the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the National Unity Party (NUP). The former will be led by Prime Minister Thein Sein,the top generals right hand-man,and the latter is led by Tun Yi,the former deputy commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Experts at the Carnegie Endowment and the Council on Foreign Relations have placed their bets on either of these two parties.
Other parties do factor in,and predictably,the junta has conducted a cautious vetting process allowing for 37 other political parties. Conspicuously absent from the list is the National League for Democracy (NLD),led by Aung San Suu Kyi,who is nicknamed the lady by the generals. But Suu Kyi has boycotted the elections. Her rationale is two-fold,and simple. First,if she were to participate in the elections she would be overlooking the results of the 1990 elections. It was in those elections that Suu Kyi was handed a mandate to rule by more than 80 per cent of the voters. The election was brushed under the carpet,the results ignored and the lady was promptly put under house arrest. The second reason for her refusal to participate is the constitution. The recently drafted electoral law requires all political parties to pledge and uphold the 2008 constitution. The NLD has refused to recognise this constitution,and the international community,too,has voiced concerns.
The constitution is a component of the Roadmap to Democracy and clauses within the constitution complicate a fair and inclusive election. Under the constitution,the military is established as an ultra-constitutional organisation; simply put,it is above the law. The constitution allocates prime authority to the chief of staff of the defence forces. It is he who will nominate 25 per cent of the members of the Peoples Assembly. The upcoming November 7 vote is for the remaining 75 per cent but the constitution does not specify how the seats will be allocated. Further,the constitution remains silent over satisfying the demands of Burmas ethnic minorities.
Writer and scholar Thant Myint-U has voiced concerns over the non-inclusion of Burmas ethnic minorities. It will be a very undemocratic,unfair and unfree election with no media freedom,no freedom to campaign. The generals have taken this criticism into account and a UN report (2009) details the juntas coercion in ensuring the minorities participate the government has encouraged and warned ethnic minority political organisations to take part. However the junta has isolated the insurgency-ridden north from participating in the elections. Also prohibited from participation are Burmas prisoners of conscience. The constitution and electoral law prohibits political activists in prison from voting. It is estimated that over 2,100 political activists continue to languish in prison.
The voting process is further complicated due to Burmas Unlawful Association Act. This act prohibits freedom of assembly,association,movement and expression. Naturally,the act has prevented campaigning for the election. Tin Aye,an independent pro-democracy candidate,has voiced concerns over the election,I cant find anyone willing to host meetings. I can only host meetings at a friends house. Another logjam to a fair election is that opposition candidates cannot afford to access voter lists. The rules that have been drawn up by the junta mandate that each candidate must pay 20 kyat (3 dollars) for the name of each constituent.
However imperfect the election may be,one can still be optimistic about the shake-up it will bring to Burmese politics. The elections will allow for a broader cross-section of Burmese society to be represented by popular vote,a hitherto unseen development. In order to bolster its legitimacy,the government has roped in independent candidates who are highly regarded by the local population. Though this may not bring immediate reform,it does open the door for independent pro-democracy candidates.
Further,the military establishment will see an internal process of restructuring. Analysts say the general to watch is General Than Shwe,fondly known as Number One. With his health deteriorating,he has ceded limited control to others in the military establishment. It is this change that also has the potential of altering the military power structure. It is thus fair to say that the next two weeks may well be the most important weeks,politically,in Burmas recent history.
alia.allana@expressindia.com
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