Opinion Bihar’s make-or-break moment

Nitish has focused on building a new support base for himself of EBCs (extremely backward OBCs) and Mahadalits (the most deprived of the Scheduled Castes),even offering them reservations at the panchayat level. But his campaign for social uplift of the most backward sections has alienated the Brahmins and Bhumihars,who resent upheaval in the social order. In the NDA,caste rivalries over ticket allotment has led to much bitterness,and it was after considerable manoeuvring that the BJP state president,C.P. Thakur,was persuaded to take back his resignation. The Congress hopes to exploit upper-caste resentment. It is also making a special pitch for Muslim votes,allotting 33 per cent of the party’s tickets to minorities.

Bihar’s 15 per cent Muslim population could have considerable impact on the outcome. The Congress’s Muslim strategy received a major jolt with the Ayodhya title deed judgment by the Allahabad high court. Many Muslims hold both the Congress and the BJP responsible for the mosque demolition. Lalu,who points out proudly that he stopped the rath yatra and arrested L.K. Advani in 1990,may reap the benefits. Nitish,despite his special effort to establish his credentials with the Muslim community,finds it difficult to explain his partnership with the BJP. Narendra Modi may not be invited to Bihar,but BJP leaders Advani and Ravi Shankar Prasad,champions of the temple movement,are certainly planning to campaign.

Lalu pins his hopes of a comeback on cobbling together his old Muslim and Yadav vote-bank. His supporters point out that he won his earlier assembly elections by capturing between 25 to 30 per cent of the popular vote. Even when he lost in October 2005,his vote-share had declined only marginally to 23.5 per cent.

All the key players in this poll have much at stake. For Lalu Prasad and his alliance partner Ram Vilas Paswan,it is a question of political survival. A third defeat in a row for Lalu (the 2005 assembly polls and the 2009 parliamentary polls) would mean further marginalisation of Bihar’s charismatic grassroots leader,who has even appointed his son Tejaswi as his political heir. The Congress is hoping for a revival of its fortunes,after a long spell in the wilderness. Even if it is not the front-runner,the Congress aspires to a reasonably good showing. If it succeeds,it would establish that the Rahul Gandhi-Digvijaya Singh strategy of going it alone in states where the Congress has lost its traditional base is working. It would be a morale-booster before the UP assembly polls of 2012. For the BJP,defeat would probably lead to a split in its 16-year-old alliance with the JD(U) and,with that,the gradual dissolution of the NDA. Nitish might decide it makes better political sense to fight elections on his own.

For Nitish,victory would be a vindication of his policies and proof that good governance can overcome caste and communal ties in a state where both are major factors. The credit would go almost entirely to him,since he runs the state as a one-man show. Nitish would emerge much taller in national politics; in fact he would automatically be counted among potential prime ministerial prospects for the NDA.

coomi.kapoor@expressindia.com