I hope that Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton understand that right now right this second Egypt needs something more from Washington than money: quiet,behind-the-scenes engagement with Egypts ruling generals over how to complete the
transition to democracy here.
To their credit,the Egyptian generals moved swiftly to put in place a pathway to democracy: elections for a new parliament were set for September; this parliament will then oversee the writing of a new constitution,and then a new civilian president will be elected.
Sounds great on paper,and it was endorsed by a referendum,but theres one big problem: The Tahrir Square revolution was a largely spontaneous,bottom-up affair. It was not led by any particular party or leader. Parties are just now being formed. If elections are held in September,the only group in Egypt with a real party network ready to roll is the one that has been living underground and is now suddenly legal: the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
The liberal parties need more time to organise, said Naguib Sawiris,an Egyptian billionaire whos heading the best organised of the liberal parties,and is urging all the liberal groups to run under a single banner and not divide their vote.
If the Muslim Brotherhood wins a plurality it could have an inordinate impact on writing Egypts first truly free constitution and could inject restrictions on women,alcohol,dress,and the relations between mosque and state. Because the Muslim Brotherhood is ready,they want elections first, adds Osama Ghazali Harb,another reform party leader. We as secular forces prefer to have some time to consolidate our parties. We must thank the army for the role it played. But it was our revolution,not a coup détat… If there are fair elections,the Muslim Brotherhood will only get 20 per cent.
America,though,cannot publicly intervene in the Egyptian election debate. It would only undermine the reformers,who have come so far,so fast,on their own and alienate the Egyptian generals. That said,though,it is important that senior US officials engage quietly with the generals and encourage them to take heed of the many Egyptian voices that are raising legitimate concerns about a premature runoff.
In short,the Egyptian revolution is not over. It has left the dramatic street phase and is now in the seemingly boring but utterly vital phase of deciding who gets to write the rules for the new Egypt.
And how Egypt evolves will impact the whole Arab world. I just hope the Obama team is paying attention. This is so much more important than Libya.Thomas Friedman
