Opinion Afghan neutrality

On the question of neutrality,the Afghans are offended by the thought that the rest of the world should define the character of their nation-state. Afghans want to be a normal nation and have no desire to be “neutralised” by others.

The proposition that Afghanistan,established in the mid 18th century as a state,has traditionally been neutral will be contested by many. For much of the 19th century,the British Raj strove hard to prevent other powers from exercising influence in Afghanistan.

For the Raj,a “buffer” was not neutral territory,but designed to be the outermost ring of its sphere of influence. Afghanistan was indeed a part of the multi-layered ring-fence that the Raj had constructed around the subcontinent.

As the Great Game came to a close at the turn of the 20th century,Afghanistan became less important. In the first decades of the Cold War,Kabul remained relatively marginal to the security calculus of both Washington and Moscow.

Following the communist coup in Afghanistan in 1978,the West saw a Soviet grand design to take over South-West Asia and sought to undermine Russian influence in Kabul with the help of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The Soviet intervention in Afghanistan at the end of 1979 and Kabul’s tilt towards Moscow made Afghanistan a major theatre in the final stages of the Cold War. In the civil war that followed the Soviet withdrawal,the various mujahideen factions based in Pakistan reduced Afghanistan to rubble.

Non-interference

Non-interference is a natural complement to the idea of neutrality. But if there is no golden age of neutrality that Kabul can return to,a framework for preventing interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs has been equally elusive.

Gharekhan and Inderfurth call for a process led by the United Nations Secretary General that “should eventually consummate in an international conference where all the neighbours of Afghanistan would solemnly commit themselves not to interfere or intervene in its internal affairs,as well as not to support in any way — politically,materially or militarily — any group or faction within Afghanistan.” Gharekhan and Inderfurth add that “Afghanistan,for its part,would solemnly undertake to abjure forever from inviting any foreign elements to intervene in its internal problems.”

Assuming this is done,can Kabul’s neighbours feel assured that Pakistan will not meddle in the internal affairs of Afghanistan? The sad story of the last few years is that the United States has not been able to stop the Pakistan army from providing sanctuaries to the Taliban and other militant groups fighting the legitimate government in Kabul and the thousands of American and NATO troops.

If the United States,the mightiest military power the world has ever seen,is unable to either bribe or threaten the Pakistan army into changing its policy,who can really ensure that Afghanistan will be free from external intervention?

Compliance

Gharekhan and Inderfurth rightly underline the importance of compliance for the success of any international agreement on Afghanistan. If past experience is any guide,it would be reasonable to expect that Pakistan will break the agreements that it might sign. Take,for example,the Geneva Accords of 1988 that facilitated the withdrawal of Russian troops from Afghanistan.

The accords calling for non-interference and non-intervention were signed by Kabul and Islamabad in April 1988. The world’s two superpowers,America and Russia agreed to be

guarantors.

Yet,the Geneva accords did not stop the mujahideen factions from launching a bid for power in Kabul with full support from the Pakistan army. No well-meaning solution to the Afghan conflict can succeed if it does not come to terms with two facts. One is about geography,which puts Pakistan in a pivotal position. The other is about the Pakistan army’s political impulse to install a pliable regime in Kabul.

The US has not found it easy to overcome these two factors. If the international community can’t prevail in Afghanistan,the stage will be set for Pakistan’s gains in the near-term and counter moves by Kabul’s other neighbours over the longer term.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com