Zero sum game

The BJP calculates it is not worth taking collective responsibility for raising Jayalalitha's hackles. With a promptness that belies its ...

The BJP calculates it is not worth taking collective responsibility for raising Jayalalitha8217;s hackles. With a promptness that belies its brave words about facing down threats to the stability of the government, the party has moved once again to mollify her. After the Prime Minister disassociated himself from P.R. Kumaramangalam8217;s opinion of the AIADMK8217;s tactics, the author of the remarks himself chose to have second thoughts and described them as his own view.

Such retreats and the temporary truce that follows are common features of the relationship between the BJP and its main ally. In the aftermath of Subramanian Swamy8217;s tea party, however, it is a little more difficult to predict whether the storm will indeed blow over. For one, the Congress is showing signs of impatience. Its networking with leaders of other political parties, including Jayalalitha, suggests it is no longer content to stay on the sidelines and watch the 18-party ruling coalition come apart on its own.

The options this givesJayalalitha may turn out to be illusory eventually but for the time being it has led her to believe her clout within the BJP-coalition has been enhanced and that she can play off one side against the other with impunity.

Privately, the BJP will be of one mind and agree with Kumaramangalam that Jayalalitha is causing the government acute embarrassment by demanding, in tandem with the Congress, a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation into the sacking of Admiral Bhagwat and by pressing for the removal of George Fernandes from the defence ministry.

There will be anger over her threats and more so her double-dealing, publicly cultivating Sonia Gandhi even as her party is part of the government. The BJP would be perfectly within its rights to demand an explanation from her, if not publicly as Kumaramangalam has done, at least privately. Sheer self-respect if nothing else demands that.

Vajpayee came close to reprimanding the AIADMK boss recently when he pointed out that allies have responsibilities in acoalition government. But it was far too mild to make an impact. The BJP still hesitates to call her to account in a way that would make a difference because it takes her bluff about withdrawing support from the government as the real thing.

That suggests two things. One will be the assessment that she can still be turned around and more substantial concessions will end her flirtation with the Congress. The second and related explanation is simply that the BJP is neither confident of stitching up alternative support in the Lok Sabha nor ready to go into an election which it believes to be inevitable if it falls.

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It has therefore no choice but to be tolerant. At what point the cost of placating her will be seen to be higher than the benefits of the uneasy BJP-AIADMK relationship is anyone8217;s guess. Some murmurs from within the BJP suggest that the time cannot be far off. But the instinct for survival runs deep and the BJP is bound to try and exhaust every option before it gives up on Jayalalitha. In thedays ahead as she plays to the hilt her adversarial role in the BJP government, Atal Behari Vajpayee may come to regret his decision to put up with her game-playing for so long.