Why Vajpayee is still vulnerable

There have been three straws in the wind in the last week which are likely to have a bearing on the longevity of the government. The firs...

There have been three straws in the wind in the last week which are likely to have a bearing on the longevity of the government. The first is the new-found assertiveness by Atal Behari Vajpayee, the second the efforts by Lal Krishan Advani to acquire a softer face. And the third is the attempt by the BJP’s allies to distance themselves from the ruling party, without upsetting the applecart at this stage.

An otherwise accommodative Vaj-payee stuck to his guns on the induction of Jaswant Singh, Pramod Mahajan, and Jagmohan. The RSS has not given up its reservations about Jaswant Singh and Mahajan. Dattopant Thengdi, a member of the top five who comprise the RSS leadership, recently flayed Singh for succumbing to pressure from Strobe Talbott on the opening up of the insurance sector. Mahajan has tried to soften the RSS by letting it be known that had he been in the cabinet he would have opposed the IRA bill. But Vajpayee wanted both men in.

Jagmohan was never very close to Vajpayee but being from Delhi, heblocked the entry of Sushma Swaraj, and he was given the Communications portfolio held by her. Swaraj, an Advani protege, had moved to Delhi as a compromise candidate on being given the assurance that she could return to the Centre if she wanted. Advani wanted to honour that promise. Vajpayee felt that her return to the Union Cabinet would be untenable after the humiliating defeat of the party in the Union Territory.

Similarly, a more confident Vajpayee got Yashwant Sinha and other party MPs from Bihar to backtrack after they sent him a missive on the immediate creation of Vananchal state, which would have snowballed into one more controversy which the PM could have done without.

Vajpayee has also had his way in going ahead with the Ins-urance Regulatory Au-thority Bill in its original form, which at one time threatened to bring down the government. The Swadeshi Jagran Manch has all along been opposed to the dilution of economic nationalism. But hype on the Bill became possible because it became a symbolof the wider tussle that was on in the party. Uma Bharati has rarely spoken on economic issues but she took up cudgels on behalf of the swadeshi lobby and was seen to be acting at the behest of the top leaders of the party who were targeting Vajpayee.

Faced with the Prime Minister’s “enough is enough” stand, the RSS has beaten a retreat, which can at best only be tactical and possibly even temporary.

But the Prime Minister’s woes are far from over. The RSS is not happy with him and they see his reign weakening their value-system and base. Much will depend on what their top brass decides at Nagpur but they can be expected to strike back in different ways. Vajpayee has won the battle but not the war.

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Advani’s moderate statements on Sara-swati Vandana, Vande Mataram, the desirability of the Pakistani cricket team touring the country, the VHP’s proposed march to the Sufi shrine in Karn-ataka, symbolise the new niche he is trying to carve out for himself. Given the symbiotic relationshipthat exists between Advani and the RSS, Advani’s statements can be expected to have the RSS’s approval. But images are not acquired overnight. Vajpayee’s image as a liberal is the by-product of a lifetime, though Advani has come to be known as a hawk in the last decade.

This, however, does not mean that Vajpayee is about to be replaced by Advani. But it does mark the start of a process. It also shows that both Advani and the RSS realise that the BJP may not be able to come to power on its own in the near future and will have to do business with others. They may be preparing for a bipolarity in politics, not in terms of two parties but two coalitional arrangements.

No one can predict today what Mamata or Jayalalitha or Naresh Aggarwal will do three months from now. Though the BJP’s allies are openly expressing their unhappiness, they do not want another election. Sonia Gandhi has already made it clear that she is not interested in forming an alternative government.

Mamata Bannerji’s decision to form aProgressive Alliance with other offshoots of the Congress, and the support both Mamata and Jayalalitha have given to the candidature of P.M. Sayeed for the Deputy Speakership of the Lok Sabha show that they are keeping their options open. The National Conference too decided to participate in the nation-wide bandh against the BJP’s mismanagement of the economy.

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Vajpayee’s assertiveness has given the BJP a semblance of stability after the blood-letting that had started in the party following the drubbing it received at the hustings recently. Party chief Khushabhau Thakre openly took the government to task for sidelining the party, the PMO targeted the Finance Minister for the mess on the price front and, at one stage, it seemed he may be given the marching orders, and the the finance ministry in turn flayed the country’s top officials for their cavalier attitude which could not preempt the crisis.

But these developments have only also sharpened the contradictions within the party and this is what makes thegovernment more vulnerable. After all, it took only accidents to bring about the fall of both the UF governments, like Sitaram Kesri’s bombshell, and the attempt by Jitendra Prasada and Arjun Singh to upstage each other on the Jain Commission.