Which way Russia?

The Russian president had, in fact, issued orders during the Kargil war that India8217;s needs for arms and ammunition must be top priority. Indian officials confirm that the Russians drew from their own stocks to send them military aid. Apart from Moscow8217;s more public offer to build more nuclear power plants in India, the Russians have amended their own national decrees 8212; carefully so as not to violate international obligations 8212; to offer assistance in the modernisation and renovation of India8217;s nuclear reactors.

A similar American offer was abruptly withdrawn when New Delhi tested at Pokharan in May 1998 resulting in the imposition of a range of across-the-board measures. The US-led Western coalition of powers has insisted that India first sign the CTBT before any kind of nuclear cooperation.

Clearly, having walked on the wild side of the free market for a decade, the Russians are relearning to find their own place under a unipolar system. Moscow8217;s roller-coaster ride into mafia-spawned hedonism and abysmal poverty is like a mirror Russians are holding up to see themselves in. It8217;s a horrendous picture, akin to the worst images that emanate from a Third World banana republic. But now for the first time in a decade, the weight of the questioning 8212; despite the chaos, literacy levels are still close to a hundred per cent 8212; is beginning to assert itself in Russia. The Russians ask, was it for this freedom that we paid the price of Stalin8217;s terror, that fascism was fought with blood and guts on the Second World War battlefields of Kursk and Odessa and Leningrad?

The questions stare Putin in the face, probably every morning when he wakes up from his Kremlin bed. Which way Russia? And, what is to be done? Should Moscow reassert itself in its old sphere of influence in Central Asia? How can it, in the new world order, reinvent old relationships such as with India? Increasingly, Putin8217;s value lies in the fact that, despite the Barents sea moving beneath him and the biggest tower in Europe threatening to fall down from the sky, he is attempting to find a Russian way out of the mess. So he flies a fighter plane into Chechnya and orders that Moscow take a leaf out of the NATO aerial bombing of Yugoslavia. He visits North Korea for a first-hand assessment of the so-called rogue state before he sups with his G-8 colleagues in Japan. And he persuades the Russian military-industrialcomplex to custom design Sukhoi fighter jets for India.

Of course, Putin has already conceded the battle for the most powerful 8212; and charismatic 8212; man in the world to Clinton. For a people who gave the world the genius of Pushkin and Pasternak, the Russians have singularly lost out on the art of the sound bite. The overwhelming image that comes to mind of any Kremlin chief is Andrei Gromyko, better known as 8220;Comrade no.8221; Boris Yeltsin, of course, tried much harder, even handing over the Soviet Union to the West. His too hearty country manner as well as his intimate friendship with the vodka factory meant he could never find a place on the high table of international graces. So if this is the prototypal Russian leader, how could he even dream of competing with the Man from Nayla?

Putin, clearly, would rather go to a JNU gathering where students still dream about an egalitarian world, than uncomfortably thrash about with village women. Filled to our gills with images of Clinton8217;s utterly charming profile and his criticism of Pakistan on Kashmir, we know that Putin has almost lost out on the photo-op. His advisors insist he8217;s not competing with the former adversary, though, only concerned about how two friendly countries can mutually share the beef. The offer to cooperate on nuclear energy, sell T-90 tanks or an aircraft carrier to India will infuse much-needed cash into the Russian system even as it provides New Delhi with top-of-the-line defence equipment.

Moreover, how many nations would offer nuclear energy cooperation with a non-NPT country 8212; like India 8212; even before it signed the CTBT? Or persist with the transfer of space technology 8212; the GSLV will be launched in January at Shriharikota 8212; despite a 1993 cancellation of an agreement under US pressure to sell cryogenic engines and technology. Few people know that Russian space scientists worked overtime to transfer most of the designs to ISRO just before the cancellation clause came into effect.

In contrast, despite the current euphoria over the new honeymoon with Washington, the US has refused to entertain the idea of lifting sanctions or moving forward on defence cooperation with India until New Delhi signs the CTBT. There has been much talk about the 8220;convergence of interests8221; between India and the US, but the subtext insists that New Delhi must first show responsibility by addressing key regional security issues, including a dialogue with Pakistan. The key difference in the character of the relationships both Russia and the US have with India showed up in the manner in which these countries dealt with Kargil: While Moscow quietly and without fuss helped the government to fight the Pakistani army, Washington was focussing its efforts on a face-saving withdrawal for Islamabad.

Putin and Clinton, the comparisons are endless. But as Vajpayee gets ready to receive the Russian president, within days of having conquered America, the view from India is limitless. The end of the first decade after the Cold War sometimes does that. It offers the possibility of refashioning the world into a multipolar one.

Putin would rather go to a JNU gathering where students still dream about an egalitarian world, than mix with village women