Whatever Dem choice, poll finds McCain will trail

About two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job and think the war was not worth fighting, and most hold those positions “strongly.” A slim majority also doubts the United States is making progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq.These views are closely related to voters’ choices: McCain does poorly against Clinton and Obama among those who disapprove of the president and those opposing the war.

Among independents, those who see improvements in Iraq break for McCain against either Democrat; six in 10 of those more skeptical of progress would go for a Democrat.

Another obstacle for McCain might be his age. More than a quarter of those polled said they are less inclined to support McCain because, if elected, he would be the oldest person ever to become president. The percentage discouraged by McCain’s age is more than double the numbers who would be less enthusiastic about supporting Obama due to his being an African American or Clinton because she is a woman.

McCain, however, has eight months to overcome those perceptions, and when squared against Obama, who has amassed the most delegates in the race for the Democratic nomination, the Arizona senator has key advantages on foreign policy.

The poll was conducted before the March 4 primaries in which Clinton scored wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas while Obama prevailed in Vermont. The victories were Clinton’s first in a month and further unsettled the Democratic contest.

One bright line in a campaign pitting Obama against McCain would be the one that continues to define the Democratic primary: “change” vs. “experience.” Overall, Americans are evenly divided about the candidate qualities that are most important to them: 45 per cent said strength and experience, 46 per cent a new direction and new ideas.

Eighty per cent of those prioritising a change agent opt for Obama, and 68 per cent of those favoring a steady hand go for McCain. A similar but more muted dynamic also would apply to Clinton vs. McCain, with the Republican holding a wide lead among those seeking experience and Clinton winning two-thirds of change voters.