Whacking Vaiko

It’s back to the headlines for Tamil Nadu. The state, which had drifted into a relatively uneventful phase after the drama of J. Jayalalithaa’s return to power and DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi’s midnight arrest last year, is once again alive with tension and controversy thanks to the arrest of MDMK General Secretary Vaiko, for espousing the cause of the banned extremist outfit, the LTTE, in a public speech in Thirumangalam on June 29. Down and out after the last assembly elections when his party drew a blank, Vaiko has suddenly been catapulted to the political centre stage under the glare of the national media. Yet, the fact that substantial outpourings of public sympathy and support for Vaiko have not materialised after his arrest should dispel any illusion that he may have had of emerging as a martyr to the cause of Tamil identity.

How long Vaiko will remain an imprisoned man is difficult to say. Since this is the first arrest in Tamil Nadu under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (Pota), there is no review or advisory board in place yet. He could, perhaps, apply for bail or take recourse to a habeas corpus petition. But since Pota is an untested law, there are no precedents to go by. All said and done, his arrest under this draconian act has at least for now resurrected him from seeming oblivion. At the same time, it is unlikely that it would cause any dramatic accretion to his political fortunes in the state, or indeed help fan popularity for the LTTE, which has been on the wane after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination. But a great deal depends on how the issue is handled. If Chief Minister Jayalalithaa botches it, Vaiko could very well emerge the hero and public apprehensions over Jayalalithaa’s own style of politics could arise.

Significantly, the BJP response to Vaiko’s arrest has been circumspect. This indicates that the ruling party at the Centre is carefully weighing the utility of a Vaiko, with his undoubted enthusiasm as an ally, against the prospect of winning Jayalalithaa and her party on to its side. Meanwhile, the DMK, too, is making its own calculations. Its protestations over Vaiko’s arrest is clearly only play acting. It is well known that Karunanidhi has no love lost for Vaiko, whose popularity had once posed a threat to the ascendancy of his son, Stalin, within the DMK. For the moment, though, there can be little doubt that it is Jayalalithaa who still holds the trumps. But even as she does so, she must know that it would be unwise in the extreme to assume that her stock would not suffer if she allows herself to revert once again to the politics of vendetta.