Wedding diplomacy — Govt gives Lone his passport

The Hurriyat, which has an Observer status with the OIC, was represented at an OIC gathering after a gap of two years. The last time was in 1998 in the run-up to Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s Lahore trip.

Although the OIC today issued a strong resolution condemning India for “flagrant human rights violations” in Kashmir and upheld the “right of the Kashmiris to self-determination”, the Government is inclined to play it down in the light of what it sees as “positive” statements from Farooq at the Summit. Farooq spoke against a “confrontation” with India and stressed the need for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute through negotiations. Significantly, both Farooq and Ansari will attend the Lone-Khan marriage in Islamabad on their way back from Qatar.

While Hurriyat leaders maintain the wedding is a “social occasion”, its political overtones cannot be missed. Apart from being a show of Kashmiri unity for both New Delhi and Islamabad, it gives the Hurriyat an opportunity to sound out the Pakistani leadership about the modalities of a dialogue with the Indian Government.

Having opened the doors for the Hurriyat by dovetailing the permission for two unrelated events, the Government feels the ball is now in the Kashmiris’ court. It is hopeful of getting a positive response, and highly-placed sources in the Government were optimistic enough to predict that the “flexibility” shown by New Delhi towards the Hurriyat could get a dialogue off the ground by the end of the year.

Hurriyat sources were more cautious but reacted favourably to the signals from the Government, saying they represented “a shift” in New Delhi’s policy. The sources went so far as to say that the modalities of a dialogue were a matter of detail which could be worked out. In other words, the question of talking only to the Indian Government in the initial stages was open if New Delhi accepted in principle that Pakistan would have to be involved later for a permanent solution to the Kashmir dispute.

The possibility of reviving the peace initiative in the Valley has also raised hopes of resuming the disrupted Indo-Pak dialogue. Official sources said that New Delhi could begin talks with Islamabad provided a cease-fire was called in the Valley.

The Government seems hopeful enough. The sources said there was evidence to suggest that the Valley is quietening down. September, which is usually a month for heavy influx from across the border before the passes close for winter, reported far less militant attacks than in previous years.

However, there is a joker in the pack in the form of Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah. If a dialogue with the Hurriyat takes concrete shape, his National Conference will be a loser because it will lose its political monopoly in the Valley.

The fear spurred Abdullah to play the controversial autonomy card in June which temporarily stalled the Government’s plans to draw the Hurriyat into mainstream Kashmiri politics. The focus then shifted to talking directly to the militants instead and the Government launched its Hizbul initiative, a move which Abdullah openly supported.

Now that the Hurriyat is back in the picture, Abdullah can be expected to try and stir up trouble again. Which is why both the Government and the Hurriyat are moving carefully.