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Journalism of Courage
When Argentines last voted in a national election two years ago they chose Cristina Fernández as their new president with 45 per cent of the vote and no need for a run-off. They gave the political block controlled by her and her husband and predecessor,Néstor Kirchner,healthy majorities in both houses of Congress. In a mid-term election on June 28th not only did the first couple lose those majorities but they also lost the political dominance they have exercised over Argentina since 2003. They show few immediate signs of heeding the demand for change.
In the lower house,where half the seats were in play,the Kirchners supporters now have just 115 of the 257 seats. They lost three seats in the Senate,which is now evenly balanced. Across the country,their vote sank to around 30 per cent in an election that Mr Kirchner had framed as a referendum on the first couples leftist,populist version of Peronism. He stood himself in Buenos Aires province,where nearly 40 per cent of Argentines live,but came second,beaten by a group of dissident,centrist Peronists headed by Francisco de Narváez,a wealthy businessman.
Argentina seems to feel uncomfortable with a weak leader. In the current democratic period starting in 1983,two presidents,both of them Radicals facing deep economic woes,were forced to step down early after losing their congressional majorities. In 1997 Carlos Menem,a Peronist,lost his majority,but he survived by cultivating good relations both with the opposition and the provincial governors. That has not been Ms Fernándezs way. Argentina is now again in recession. Partly because of drought but also because of punitive taxes,it may have to import wheat next year for the first time since records began. The next two years may be rocky.
This week the president was characteristically haughty and defiant in a defeat she refused to recognise as such. Mr Kirchner gave up the leadership of the Justicialist Peronist Party,but turned it over to an ally. The health minister resigned,as officials belatedly accepted the severity of swine flu in Argentina,which they had resisted doing before the vote. There were signs of a wider cabinet shuffle,though not necessarily of policy changes. His offer of talks seemingly spurned,Mr de Narváez complained: The government is autistic,removed from reality.
The new Congress will not assemble until December. Even then,the president could rule by decree. Opponents want the government to fire those responsible for doctoring economic statistics,and to cease its harassment of the private sector. The risk premium on Argentinas bonds has fallen by more than three percentage points over the past month. The opposition still has much work ahead. The Radicals need to rebuild their weakened party machine. And the Peronists need to rally round a new leader. But the Kirchners dreams of alternating in office for another decade are over.
The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009
