UP and UPA

Uttar Pradesh,as far as determining the political wind in the vast democratic space of this country goes,is very high up the order. It is a key state,in terms of both the general and assembly elections. Therefore,the announcement of dates for the state’s assembly polls will trigger a storm of campaign activity denser than the rhetoric and rivalries so far. UP will be polling in seven phases spread over the month of February next year,while the other poll-bound states — Punjab,Manipur,Uttarakhand and Goa — will have a single-phase election each,between January and March.

The verdict in UP has significant implications for political stability at the Centre. The beleaguered UPA hopes that gains by the Congress — riding on Rahul Gandhi’s frenetic campaign so far — will give it a measure of stability,maybe help push through reforms and initiatives that have been on hold. For the BJP,UP is a test of how effective the party has been in solving its internecine power struggle and communicating a clear message to its voters. By most accounts,the battle is primarily between the ruling BSP,led by CM Mayawati,and the Samajwadi Party under a younger leadership,that of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s son,trying to shed its burden of history. But then history and politics have been unpredictable and unstable here in recent decades — the rise of identity politics in UP in the mid-1980s produced a churning that still defines electoral politics in many parts of the country. If that has been seen in the various permutations of the Lucknow assembly,the 2007 verdict might have been its culmination,moving the political discourse to a developmental and aspirational level. That’s one important reason why the stakes are high for all players. The land acquisition troubles — which came as a late but significant factor for political rivalries in western UP — have sharpened the rhetoric,expanded the political field,heightened the possibilities and made the outcome more unpredictable.

The UPA at the Centre may have managed to squeeze in an overdose of sops just in time for the model code of conduct,but the announcement of the polling dates also means stability is likely to be restored to the state’s frayed political fabric,putting to rest a prolonged phase of loud and muck-raking political conflict. And that could have a direct bearing on New Delhi.