Contraction in world economic output appears to be slowing and a recovery could begin at the end of this year,Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation OECD chief Angel Gurria said on Friday.
Indicators ranging from US house sales to Chinese exports are beginning to pick up and the global economy is no longer in free fall,he said during a speech to an economic forum.
Asked if world output could begin to recover by the year-end Gurria said: I would say yes; the issue of recovery does not mean that we start to have very clear positive figures but that first the world economy stops contracting. Upcoming forecasts for OECD member countries on June 25 will be the first since the beginning of the crisis not to show a serious deterioration in GDP,Gurria added.
The 30-nation organisation currently expects member economies to contract 4.3 per cent this year and 0.1 per cent in 2010. The US will recover before Europe due to the larger economic stimulus package launched by Washington and the fact that the US financial crisis is at a more advanced stage,Gurria said. Green shoots are appearing, he said. Gurria played down the threat of credit rating cuts for large economies such as the UK and the US. Standard amp; Poors lowered its outlook on the UK to negative on Thursday,putting at risk Britains AAA rating.