More forces,or well lose: US commander

His assessment was sent to US Defence Secretary Robert M Gates on August 30 and is now being reviewed by President Barack Obama and his national security team. McChrystal concludes the documents five-page Commanders Summary on a note of muted optimism: While the situation is serious,success is still achievable.

But he repeatedly warns that without more forces and the rapid implementation of a genuine counterinsurgency strategy,defeat is likely.

He provides extensive new details about the Taliban insurgency,which he calls a muscular and sophisticated enemy that uses modern propaganda and systematically reaches into Afghanistans prisons to recruit members and even plan operations.

McChrystals assessment is one of several options the White House is considering. Obama said last week that he will not decide whether to send more troops until he has absolute clarity about what the strategy is going to be.

McChrystal makes clear that his call for more forces is predicated on the adoption of a strategy in which troops emphasize protecting Afghans rather than killing insurgents or controlling territory. Most starkly,he says: Inadequate resources will likely result in failure. However,without a new strategy,the mission should not be resourced.

3-headed insurgency

McChrystals list,in order of their threat to the mission

Mullah Omars Quetta Shura Taliban QST: Based in Quetta,conducts formal campaign review each winter,after which Mullah Omar announces his guidance and intent for the coming year. Has established elaborate alternative government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Shariah courts.

Haqqani network HQN: Active in southeastern Afghanistan,draws money and manpower principally from Pakistan,Gulf Arab networks,and from al-Qaeda and other Pakistan-based insurgent groups. Al-Qaedas links with HQN have grown,suggesting that expanded HQN control could create a favourable environment for safe havens in Afghanistan.

Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin: Has bases in three Afghan provinces and in Pakistan. Led by former mujahideen commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar,aims to negotiate a major role in a future Taliban government,and seeks control of mineral wealth.

Pak-backed

Insurgency is clearly supported from Pakistan. Senior leaders are based in Pakistan,are linked with al-Qaeda and are reportedly aided by some elements of ISI8230; Al-Qaeda and based in Pakistan channel foreign fighters,suicide bombers8230; into Afghanistan8230;