More attacks by Pak trained militants likely: US think-tank

This crisis management ‘Plan A’ included familiar elements such as “top-level diplomacy,high-level official visits,playing for time,and close cooperation with British officials”,says the study and adds,“There was no Plan B”.

“US crisis management after the Mumbai attacks was exemplary — but it was effective largely because Indian political leaders did not wish to risk an open-ended war that could lead to uncontrolled escalation and jeopardize other equities,” the study says but warns that “New Delhi’s cost benefit calculus could change”.

Titled ‘The Unfinished Crisis: US Crisis Management After The 2008 Mumbai Attacks’,the study was conducted by former CIA official and analyst Polly Nayak and Stimson co-founder and South Asia expert Michael Krepon.

“We conclude that this crisis is both unresolved and unfinished,as our title suggests,and that further attacks in India by militants trained in Pakistan are likely,” the preface to the study says,adding that “the circumstances,targets,and venues of any future attacks may differ significantly”.

Although India-Pakistan relations have gradually recovered from the blow dealt by 26/11 and the neighbours have exchanged high-level visits in an effort to improve ties,this process itself could be a trigger for attacks from those in Pakistan opposed to friendly relations,says the study.

“Attempts to improve bilateral relations could prompt crisis-generating spoiler attacks,but such attacks could occur regardless of normalization efforts. Postponing efforts to improve bilateral ties merely guarantees more unfinished crises,any of which can fuel future escalation,” the authors say.

While Indian grievances remain unresolved,Pakistani policies remain dangerously subject to miscalculation. “Further attacks in India by extremists trained,equipped,and based in Pakistan can be expected,making another crisis likely,” they say.

“A key question will be how confident Indian officials are of Washington’s ability to influence Pakistan’s security establishment in a crisis,and how willing they remain to lean on Washington’s good offices. If they lose faith in US diplomatic clout,Indian officials may be more inclined to respond militarily in the event of a future attack linked to Pakistan,” they add.

The study also echoes New Delhi’s frustrations in trying to bring to justice perpetrators of the attack who have been held in Pakistan but whose trials have been crawling.

“US and Indian leaders had very little leverage on Pakistani officials to take serious,lasting steps against Pakistan-based groups and individuals linked to attacks on Indian soil. The aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks confirmed anew that Pakistan’s military,political,and judicial authorities could not or would not take punitive action against the perpetrators,” it says.