Low turnout at Anantnag may upset poll calculations in Valley

Things are likely to go awry in Srinagar and Kupwara too which go to polls on May 7 and May 13,respectively. In Srinagar,a likely boycott will put winning chances of NC candidate Dr Farooq Abdullah under severe strain. Abdullah is pitted against PDP candidate Iftikhar Hussain Ansari who has a massive following in the Shia populated areas of the city and neighbouring Budgam,a vote-bank not prone to boycott calls. And if they vote en masse and against the NC,it is likely to seal the fate of Abdullah. However,in more favourable circumstances,Abdullah is expected to scrape through.

Besides,Abdullah’s sister Khalida Abdullah is contesting against him from the constituency. Khalida is the chairperson of the Awami National Conference founded by her husband and former state chief minister G M Shah. However,except for a few old loyalists,Khalida has little by way of a substantial vote-bank to take on Abdullah.

However,it is Baramulla — stage to an interesting electoral battle with a separatist contesting — that will be most observed for the impact of the dismal polling in Anantnag. How will a low turnout in the constituency impact the chances of Sajad Lone,the Valley’s first major separatist fighting his first polls and derivatively the battle of his political survival? Lone is contesting against PDP and NC stalwarts,with long political careers. PDP’s Dilawar Mir exercises political influence over a substantial part of the constituency and other PDP-sympathetic areas,particularly Shia votes of the Pattan. Similarly,NC contestant Sharief Din Shariq’s support base equals that of Lone in his stronghold of Kupwara district,and a low turnout could distort electoral calculations. Questions raised are whether all of Lone’s loyal base will turn out,or how a part of his support base,disgruntled by his decision to fight election,will vote. Also,observers in Kashmir say,of the three leaders,it is the supporters of Lone who are prone to boycott. But for now fingers are crossed and the triangular contest looks evenly split.