Jaya Ho!

In a fluid 2009,AIADMK leader and former chief minister J Jayalalithaa is sitting in an enviable position...

In a fluid 2009,AIADMK leader and former chief minister J Jayalalithaa is sitting in an enviable position,having found a flexibility to be part of any coalition at the Centre. She is considered a natural ally of the BJP; can join a Congress-led restructured UPA if it excludes the DMK; or enlarge the present understanding with the Left parties into an alliance,in case a promising Third Front emerges post poll.

Between this cup and the lip,however,is one deal. She was that much away from a coup when she advised Congress leaders to dump the DMK. Had the Congress given in to the lure of negating anti-incumbency that the state Government is said to be facing,it would have brought her a sure shot at the Centre,and more importantly,the fall of state Government that is dependent on the Congresss outside support.

From 2004 when even her poll manifesto raised Congress chief Sonia Gandhis foreign issue,Jayalalithaa did a full circle by recalling her association with the Gandhi family when she aired her words on February 19. The deal with the Congress would have automatically brought the PMK to her front,doubling her chances in all the 40 seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

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It is a cliché now to say that Tamil Nadu is won by clever alliances. Both major parties have less than 30 per cent vote share,making it necessary to hold hand with others for votes and power. This was proved again by DMK leader M Karunanidhi,stitching together a rainbow alliance to unify the anti- Jayalalithaa feeling into a single front to leave AIADMK unrepresented in the Lok Sabha.

But to know where the AIADMK stands now,perhaps one should look at 2006,when it won 61 out of 234 Assembly seats. A number small enough to make it sit in the Opposition but relatively big when compared to the four-member AIADMK in 1996 and even microscopic two-member Opposition in 1989.

More than the AIADMKs actions as the Opposition leader,it is the in-fighting in erstwhile DPA that led to Jayalalithaas re-emergence five years on. The DMKs fall out with the PMK and the latters ouster from the state-level front came first. Though this would have automatically helped the Opposition,Karunanidhi controlled the damage by not seeking PMKs removal from the UPA.

The India-US civilian nuclear deal altered state politics next,again to the AIADMKs benefit. The UPAs victory on trust vote day and the DMKs support for it made it unviable for the Left parties to continue their state-level alliance. After weighing options of aligning with regional parties that would toe the Lefts line at the national level,the AIADMK was seen as the most favourable,if the CPI and CPM,having won two seats each in 2004,was to have any hope of retaining the numbers.

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Curiously,the deal also quietened the commotion around the Setu Samudram Shipping Channel Project,as CPI,one of the ardent supporters of the project,decided to join the AIADMK,a party to a Supreme Court case over the same.

Southern districts like Madurai,Sivaganga,Ramanathapuram,Tuticorin,Virudhunagar,Tirunelveli,Dindigul,Theni and Kanyakumari,have over 10 seats where the AIADMK has traditional might. This was negated last time by the alliance,with the Congress (5),DMK (2),CPM (2),CPI (1) and the MDMK (1) sharing the spoils. This time,the Left parties and MDMK considerably strong in the region are with the AIADMK,making it tougher for the ruling front.

The region is also infamous for clashes between various communities,mostly between Thevars and Dalits. The infamous untouchability wall at Uthapuram village that stood for 19 years is an example of caste equations,though it is transforming with the rapid urbanisation. That DMK,AIADMK and DMDK fielded candidates from the Thevar community for the Thirumangalam Assembly by-election could throw light on the way this region votes. Over the years,the AIADMK has been able to garner the support of the Thevar community which the DMK is trying to break into. The DMK won the by-election though it is not credited with the victory.

Dalits also add up to a sizable vote share in the region. The CPM is trying to woo the young,more aware ones,while the presence of K Krishnasamy,leader of Dalit party Puthiya Thamizhagam at Jayalalithaas fast venue on March 9 is seen as another factor in the AIADMKs favour.

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With it,the PMK brings transferable vote-bank,especially from the northern districts. Neither its leaders nor its cadres have any love lost for the DMK after nearly two years of sharp exchanges,though emotion has not forced its founder-leader S Ramadoss to make a decision. Sources say Ramadoss is interested in having an alliance with the AIADMK. But the party and his son Anbumani Ramadoss are keener on continuing the partnership with the Congress. Hence,if the Congress had decided to go with the AIADMK,it would have brought PMK along with it as a bonus. It would have automatically meant the exit of Left parties,though the damage will be limited as they hold a little over two per cent vote share each while the Congress-PMK combine brings in about 20 per cent.

The Congress high command,however,has expressed its continuation of alliance with the DMK,ruling out a Congress-AIADMK-PMK alliance. If Jayalalithaa makes an offer he cannot resist,Ramadoss could still come to her camp,probably bringing in another Dalit party,VCK,which is overtly anti-Congress over the war in Sri Lanka.

With the general elections approaching,calculations are not merely the political mind games in the state; one requires a calculator to add up the vote percentages and safely predict the outcome of the 15th Lok Sabha,to which Tamil Nadu and Puducherry send 40 members.