Himachals big two fighting similar battles and each other

For Virbhadra,a five-time Congress chief minister,the challenge is to prove that he has lost none of his relevance after the high command ignored dissenting voices and put him in charge of the state unit. This was because the Congress had no option to fall back on but the 78-year-old leader,who retains his charisma with the voter and who has a history of bouncing back whenever the chips have appeared to be down.

Virbhadras appointment came shortly after he had resigned as Union minister following the framing of corruption charges against him by a Shimla court,the case relating to an alleged payoff of Rs 2.28 crore by Ispat Industries to a certain VBS,a diary entry detected during income-tax raids. In Dhumals case,the corruption charges are mainly against the ministers in his government. He had to drop Rajeev Bindal as health minister though he gave him a clean chit on allegations about having amassed property with corrupt means. The Congress has named half a dozen ministers as corrupt,its allegations including sale of land to non-Himachalis,patronising the land mafia,and scams in purchases under the public distribution system.

Through the campaign so far,corruption has overshadowed development as a poll issue. Dhumal has been targeting Virbhadra,who has been hitting back with allegations against the government. Virbhadra,banking on anti-incumbency,has been targeting the government over illegal land sales and non-utilisation or misuse of Central funds,which he puts at Rs 10,500 crore and which Dhumal says never came.

In warding off potential rebellion,Virbhadra seems to have come off better than Dhumal. To varying extents,both have had their way in the selection of candidates; Virbhadra has more of his supporters in the Congress list than Dhumal has in the BJPs.

The bitterness within the BJP showed during the distribution of tickets for Kangra,Shanta Kumars domain. In 2007,this region in lower Himachal,then with 16 constituencies and now with 15,gave the BJP nine of its 41 MLAs,apart from an Independent supporting the government. This years tickets were bitterly fought for,with Shanta Kumar pitching his loyalist Ramesh Dhawala from Jwalamukhi where Dhumal had wanted to field Ravinder Ravi. Shanta Kumar had his way with Ravi eventually fielded from Dehra,though this seat too falls within Kangra. But Shanta Kumar too is smarting because he could not prevent the fielding of corruption-accused ministers,including Bindal,in seats beyond his domain.

The Congress may have fielded 22 new faces but the final list has the signature of the free hand it gave Virbhadra. For him,the challenge is not from the candidates but from the rebellion the list has led to. A dozen rebels are contesting,one of them a close relative of his. If the Assembly turns up hung,Virbhadra will need to go to the rebels to meet his primary objective,which is to return as chief minister.

In the BJP,rebellion has created a split. Former MP Maheshwar Singh,Shanta Kumars ally in the fight against corruption,has formed the Himachal Lokhit Party. The Trinamool Congress,the NCP and the BSP add some variety but it is Maheshwar Singhs HLP that is a serious contender in the polls,one that could play a crucial role if the BJP falls short of a majority.

Himachal Pradesh has never re-elected a government since 1985. But last time,Dhumal defied history to give the BJP its first government of its own. A lot of factors promise to make this election unpredictable,not least of which is that both Dhumal and Virbhadra are contesting from new seats after delimitation wiped out Dhumals original constituency of Bamsan and shut Virbhadra out of Rohru,new reserved.