Fever pitch

Public health officials are said to be in perpetual anticipation of a deadly new influenza strain that could lead to a runaway pandemic. The high death tolls of the flu pandemics of 1918 and 1968 provide chilling records of how difficult it can be to control the runaway spread of a new strain. Therefore,governments matched the World Health Organisation’s concern when a new strain,the so-called swine flu or the H1N1 virus,claimed its first victims in Mexico six weeks ago. By April 29,WHO had signalled the second highest level of alert,saying a pandemic could be imminent. Since then the virus has shown up in more than 60 countries and claimed more than a hundred deaths. In Andhra Pradesh,this weekend,the alert was intensified when two cases of swine flu were confirmed to indicate that they had been contracted upon contact with persons who had traveled overseas. Preventive measures have been announced in Hyderabad,including compulsory tests for all passengers entering the city at the international airport.

Similarly emergency steps have been tried worldwide. Mexico reacted to the first cases by ordering people to stay home,emptying even restaurants. Schools have been shut upon first suspicion in countries as geographically apart as England and Japan. And US President Barack Obama has advocated the benefits to self and community of washing one’s hands regularly. So,how seriously should this threat be taken? After all,compared to the seasonal flu,the toll is not that significant. And once detected,H1N1 has in most cases responded to drugs. In fact,when the WHO said on June 2 that it was closer to terming swine flu a worldwide pandemic,its officials said there could be a clarification that the flu was not that lethal.

And that is the problem. It is amply clear that enough is not known about the H1N1 virus. For instance,how it may spread alongside the season flu,and more worryingly how it may mutate as it spreads. What happens if a drug-resistant strain appears? Researchers are working overtime on vaccines and medication. But for public health officials the old guides remain: to watch and isolate cases,and share information.