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Gathering in Port Moresby,capital of Papua New Guinea,Pacific Island leaders this week gave an absent friend an ultimatum. They told Fijis coup leader,Frank Bainimarama....

February 6, 2009 11:29 PM IST

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Gathering in Port Moresby,capital of Papua New Guinea,Pacific Island leaders this week gave an absent friend an ultimatum. They told Fijis coup leader,Frank Bainimarama,that if he fails to announce credible plans for an election this year,Fiji will face suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum. If Mr Bainimaramas international standing is on the line,so is the Forums own credibility.

Mr Bainimarama,who took office as interim prime minister after a coup in December 2006,stayed away from the meeting in Port Moresby,a Forum summit. He pleaded pressing domestic duties after severe floods in Fiji in early January. Few in Fiji believe that excuse. More likely,he was embarrassed to face the Forum after breaking a firm promise to hold elections by March 2009. This is not the first time Fijis coup leader has snubbed a regional summit: last August he failed to attend a similar meeting in Niue,one of the microstate members of the Forum. Confirming the impression of disarray in Fiji diplomatic circles,the most senior official in the foreign ministry was forced to resign this month after saying on local television that he wished Mr Bainimarama would indeed attend the Port Moresby meeting.

Mr Bainimarama insists that sweeping electoral reforms have to be enacted before the next polls. These,he says,could then be held 12-15 months later. He claims that Fijis voting laws have fuelled racism and underpinned the countrys coup culture,which has seen elected governments toppled in 1987,2000 and 2006. His government wants to ditch Fijis highly complex voting system,lower the voting age from 21 to 18 and abolish race-based electoral rolls,under which the countrys 57 indigenous population vote separately from the 38 Fiji Indians. All these proposals may be sensible enough. But Mr Bainimarama has no mandate to enact any of them. To solve that conundrum,he hopes that the Commonwealth and the United Nations will help him arrange a Presidents Forum aimed at persuading Fijis political parties to sign up to his reform package. But New Zealands prime minister,John Key,has rejected UN and Commonwealth intervention,saying that the Forum is the right body to deal with Fiji.

In Port Moresby both Mr Key and Australias prime minister,Kevin Rudd,pressed for a tough response on Fiji. Other Pacific leaders,including the host,Papua New Guineas prime minister,Sir Michael Somare,urged a milder approach,more in tune with what they like to call the Pacific way. After the final communiqué,Mr Rudd said that there was unanimity,and that Fiji will be automatically suspended from the Forum if no road-map towards an election is agreed by May 1st. Not everyone shares Mr Rudds confidence.

Mr Bainimaramas initial,unscripted reaction was belligerent,likening the ultimatum to a declaration of war. With luck,wiser counsel will prevail. If the communiqué strengthens the position of moderates in his interim cabinet,and produces a firm electoral timetable,it will have achieved a useful purpose. But if Mr Bainimarama and his shadowy Military Council continue to reject any plans for a return to democracy,the Pacific Islands Forum will be forced to act later this year,or risk losing whatever credibility it still enjoys.

The Economist Newspaper Limited 2008

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