Beginning the end?

In the very week that US-led forces formally began drawing down their presence,after 10 years of their bitter slog in Afghanistan,two assassinations have revealed that leaving will be much harder than they anticipated. The Taliban have owned up to killing Jan Mohammed Khan,one of Afghan president Hamid Karzais most important advisers and the former governor of southern Oruzgan. This comes days after the killing of the presidents half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai,another key deal-maker. Both these are big setbacks for Karzai,and for the international effort to strengthen his government and enable a full exit of the US-led coalition by 2014.

Given the competing networks of power that operate within and surrounding Afghanistan,peace must be patiently soldered together and figures like Jan Mohammed Khan and Ahmed Wali Karzai were crucial for these negotiations with regional and ethnic factions. If Karzais government is to be sustained,it must create a patchwork of alliances and understandings with various tribal groups and extend its power outwards. Veterans like Khan and Wali were thus necessary for US plans,as they could be counted on to gather support among tribes and shore up the Karzai administration.

These assassinations are a direct body blow to the governments attempt to exert authority the international military forces are scheduled to hand back seven areas this month,and the Bamiyan province has just been transferred to the Karzai administration. They sap the ongoing political efforts to persuade the critical southern provinces,and undermine NATOs gains in the region. And they prompt the dreaded question are Afghan security forces competent enough and capable of defending the region on their own?