A tale of two Senas

The Legislative Assembly results in Maharashtra have come as a terrible blow for the Shiv Sena,with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS breaking the Sena monopoly over Marathi Manoos issues in the state....

The Legislative Assembly results in Maharashtra have come as a terrible blow for the Shiv Sena,with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS breaking the Sena monopoly over Marathi Manoos issues in the state. While the MNS won 13 seats in its debut Assembly election,the Shiv Senas tally fell from 63 in 2004 to just 44 seats,two less than its ally,the BJP.

The Shiv Senas confrontation with a formidable rival in the shape of the MNS may cause a vertical split in the post-Bal Thackeray political scenario.

A lot will depend on the course Uddhav Thackeray chooses to take for the Shiv Sena. He can become more aggressive and compete with his cousin,MNS chief Raj Thackeray,much against his temperament. Alternatively,he could go ahead and give a new face to the Sena,by broadening its base. However,in that case the Sena would lose both its USP and its cadres,at least till other sections of society feel confident enough to back the party.

Another option,unrealistic given Rajs evident ambition,would be to team up with his cousin and work out a division of labour,with Uddhav looking after the rural areas and Raj handling the cities. This option is also unrealistic given the fact that it was over basic differences in the direction the party was taking under Uddhav that Raj chose to break away and form his own party.

The crisis in the Sena deepened after Bal Thackeray anointed his softspoken and introverted son,Uddhav,as the executive president in 2003. It came at a time when his nephew,Raj,known to be a rabblerouser,had groomed himself to take over his uncles mantle.

After taking over as number two in the party,Uddhav sought to broadbase Sena support by reaching out to other communities. The result was the Mee Mumbaikar campaign in which all Maharashtrians officially defined as all those living in the state for over 15 years were included. However,the decision did not go down well among party cadres who reveled in a xenophobic politics. The detractors were mainly supporters of Raj,who headed the youth wing of the party. Uddhavs policies were also opposed by hardliners like Narayan Rane.

In the 2004 Assembly elections,Uddhavs detractors accused him of being influenced by a coterie which had no field experience. The party won 63 seats,but the internal hostilities were on the rise.

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A year later,Rane revolted and was sacked. Subsequently,in 2006,Raj revolted against Uddhav and floated the MNS. Initially,he wanted to broadbase the MNS and reach out to the Dalits and Muslims. However,after a bleak year,he decided to concentrate on the sons-of-the-soil agenda.

Later,the decisions of the Sena-ruled municipal corporation in Mumbai to grant tax concessions to Bhojpuri films and the partys efforts to organise the Chhath Puja for north Indians,came as a boon for Raj who took to the streets. Attacks on migrant jobseekers from north Indian states for a railway recruitment examination enhanced the support of local jobless youths for Raj.

In the 2007 civic elections,the MNS made its political debut in local bodies by winning 45 seats including 12 in Nashik and seven in Mumbai. The Sena refused to see the writing on the wall.

The first big jolt from the MNS came in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. The outfit contested 12 seats,without opening its account. However,in 10 of constituencies,it spoiled the chances of the Sena and the BJP by garnering over a lakh votes in each. In the just-concluded Assembly elections,the MNS made an impressive debut by winning 13 seats.