Weathering the weather

At a height of 17,000 ft, where the Indian armed forces are battling the infiltrators, the vagaries of weather hold the key. Their direct influence on military operations underline the need to study the strange weather conditions in the region, which have more or less remained an enigma for meteorologists the world over.

But the Kashmir region has remained more or less an untouched domain in terms of an in-depth study of its climatic conditions and their implications on defence operations. Neither along the Line ofControl nor on the Siachen border has this process been initiated so far.

Acknowledging the crucial role of correct weather forecast in military operations both on land and in air, the Ministry of Defence MoD had initiated a process of improving the weather prediction system in the Valley about two years ago.

The ministry, in association with the Indian Meteorological Department IMD and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology IITM, had prepared a detailed plan for weather observation and forecast in the Kashmir region. It also talked of better communication equipment for this purpose and excessive use of satellite data.

However, the MoD project, despite its initial two meetings 8212; one held in Delhi and the other in Manali 8212; is yet to be implemented completely. An important meeting to discuss the future course of the project called in Manali last November was cancelled following the volatile situation in the Valley.

A committee of expert meteorologists constituted by the MoD had alsorecommended improvement in weather forecast in the Kashmir valley, especially in the border areas taking into consideration the strategic interests.

8220;We have recommended that defence officers should get advanced training in meteorology, that they should be in a position to precisely interpret the general weather forecast released by the IMD for local predictions,8221; says renowned meteorologist and former professor at the World Meteorological Organisation WMO G.C. Asnani, who was one of the key persons involved in the project.

8220;Precise weather conditions are of utmost importance for both land and air operations in the Valley. For operations such as firing a canon or launching a rocket, accurate weather forecast is a must so that they hit the target at the right place,8221; agrees former air chief marshal H. Moolgavkar.

At present, the IMD only has an observatory in Srinagar. However, given the fact that the weather conditions in the mountainous terrain in the border areas along Pakistan and China aremuch different, the defence services do have their own laboratory in the Valley to record the local weather observations.

However, Professor Asnani says the officers should know how to interpret this data. He points out: 8220;The IMD provides the general forecast for limited reasons. It needs to be interpreted for defence interests, especially at a time when ground and air operations are on. For this, defence personnel should be given the expertise of translating the general data for their own requirement.8221;

Explaining some of the suggestions by experts forwarded to the MoD for its consideration, he adds: 8220;We had recommended that there should be an adequate communication network to convey the observations from border laboratories to the central forecasting unit in the region for a watch on weather conditions on an hourly basis.8221;

The weather in the Himalayas has a far greater role to play in military operations than in the plains. In Kashmir, there are snow-capped mountains as high as 14,000 to 17,000 ft,often covered by clouds nd mist. It makes it difficult, even impossible, and very dangerous to carry out air operations in the region.

So complicated is the weather pattern that on one side, it could be bright sunshine while on the other, there could be a storm. Snow caps the mountains while a mild drizzle might sweep across foot-hills. The weather in the Valley changes at a distance of a few metres.

The Himalayas also consist of highly reflecting snow-covered mountains, a vast bio-mass reserve and a network of rivers. The sharp contrast in climate within short distances and altitudes is attributed to variations in topography, elevation, soil and rock structure, and the vegetation cover of the mountain region.

Stressing on the need to study weather in terms of military operations, a highly placed official in the meteorology wing of the defence services says: 8220;Only a fraction of the total defence expenditure is required for improving the status of weather forecast in the Kashmir valley. Once this isdone, it will give a shot in the arm in terms of strategic planning and executing defence operations in the future.8221;

Changes with distance, hours

In his acclaimed book Climates of South Asia, Dr G.B. Pant, IITM Director, had given a brief insight into the strange climate of the Himalayas. 8220;Snow and ice play an important part in the radiation balance over the Himalayas,8221; he wrote.

8220;The outgoing wave radiation from the mountains is naturally very high because of the very dry atmosphere above during clear seasons,8221; he said.

8220;Mountains,8221; he added, 8220;also display a large inhomogeneity in temperature distribution. The temperature varies greatly from place to place and from hour to hour. This is mainly because of the low density of the air and intense solar radiation at higher altitudes. During the day, one can suffer from sunstroke and at night from acute frost bite.8221;

Besides the permanent snow on the mountain peaks of the upper Himalayas and the many permanent glaciers, there is asubstantial accumulation of snow in winter which melts in summer. The snowfall in the Himalayas begins in October and continues until April and May, with the maximum in January and February.