Vajpayee may have a quiet September

Political circles are thus expecting the next crisis during the winter session of Parliament which could be a make or break one for theruling coalition.

Since the President and the PM will not have an opportunity to exchange notes for nearly a month, Vajpayee called on Narayanan this evening to brief him on the health of his government. Official sources said it was a routine meeting.

Vajpayee leaves for Africa on August 29 and gets back on September 5. The President leaves the next day and returns on September 21 after a four-nation tour to Germany, Portugal, Luxembourg and Turkey. The day after he comes back, Vajpayee is off to New York for the UNGA. He will be away till September 30.

Fully aware that the latest reprieve is only temporary, the Government has put off all important decisions which could have dangerous political repercussions. For instance, there will be no cabinet expansion, nor will Government brave another bureaucratic reshuffle after the hammering it took over the last one. Policy decisions are likely to be limited to ones absolutely necessary, as and when the situation demands.

The latest crisis has underlined thefragility of the current political alignment and both the BJP and the Congress are aware that their performance at the hustings in November will determine the shape of the realignment that is expected after the results come in.

In three of the four states slated to go to the polls 8211; Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi 8211; the two parties are pitted against each other with regional parties playing only a marginal role. For both, therefore, the forthcoming elections are vital, if only to prove their popularity among the people.

Although the BJP has made contingency plans for survival in the event of a pullout by the AIADMK, they will become operational only if it succeeds in defeating the Congress in at least two of the three states. BJP sources said they have tapped potential supporters among the Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and AIADMK MPs. But all have told the BJP that they would prefer to wait for the outcome of the assembly elections before taking a decision to split from their parentparties.

Similarly, the Congress too can hope to lead an alternative government only if it proves that it is capable of defeating the BJP electorally. This is largely behind Sonia Gandhi8217;s reluctance to give Jayalalitha the green signal to withdraw support from the Vajpayee Government despite the latter8217;s desperate pleas.

The first clear indication that Jayalalitha had backed off in the game of brinkmanship came from her presidium chairman VR Nedunchezhiyan yesterday when he said that the AIADMK8217;s support to the Vajpayee Govt will continue.This was underscored when Jayalalitha chose to target only the DMK in her statement today in which she accused Chief Minister Karunanidhi of 8220;betrayal and treachery8221; over the Cauvery agreement.