US experts echo fears

proliferation analyst Eric Arnett wrote recently. Other analysts critisised Fernandes upping the nuclear ante in the region without factual basis. 8220;I find it bothersome that the Defence Minister of India makesa flat assertion about nuclear weapons in Tibet.

He ought to be briefed better,8221; says Michael Krepon, an arms control expert who also believes the Indian perception of nuclear threat from Tibet is misplaced.

Arnett also believes that the Chinese Dong Feng 3A, the first missile capable of striking India, is aimed more at US bases in Philippines. 8220;There is no Chinese nuclear threat to India and no plan to create one8230; Chinese military officers say they have not done contingency planning for a war with India for decades,8221; Arnett wrote in a 1997 article in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that argues against the possibility that China is a security threat to India.

Some other experts are not so sanguine, pointing out that China now has an array of missiles, some capable of even reaching mainland USA. 8220;The missiles don8217;t have to be in Tibet. They can be brought to bear from anywhere in an Indian scenario,8221;says Richard Fisher, a highly respected China expert with the Heritage Foundation.

Fisher alsopointed out that China has plenty of mobile missiles which could be moved into Tibet. Fernandes8217; weekend comments about China being India8217;s primary rival has been prominently reported and animatedly discussed among strategic thinkers here, with views ranging from 8220;He8217;s just a loose cannon8221; to 8220;He8217;s fronting for the BJP8217;s plan to induct nuclear weapons.8221;

But most analysts say George is right about the Dragon. 8220;I think he is stating facts. China is seeking militarily useful cooperation with countries on India8217;s periphery. But being so bold as to tell the truth runs counter to recent Indian diplomatic postures vis-a-vis Beijing which is based on down playing the military angle,8221; Fisher said in an interview.

Fisher is among those who believe that Fernandes8217; outburst could lay the ground for BJP8217;s nuclearisation plans. 8220;If the BJP is seeking to justify missile deployment, talking of the Chinese threat will enable a wider arming than what is needed against Pakistan,8221; he said.

Indian experts on Chinahowever feel Fernandes8217; outburst has to do with his long standing ties with Burmese and Tibetan dissidents. 8220;Of course, his concerns about China are real. But it could have been channeled diplomatically or through the Joint Working Group instead of overplaying it to the front pages of newspapers,8221;says Sujit Dutta at the US Institute of Peace.

Meanwhile, the Clinton administration has reacted coolly to Fernandes8217; comments, advising 8220;all countries in that very heavily populated areas to avoid arms races.8221; A Pentagon spokesman declined to comment on what he called 8220;India8217;s view of its defensive challenges,8221; but said an arms race on the Indian sub-continent is destabilising in that area and could have 8220;much broader dangers.8221; Asked if is an arms race in progress on part of the Chinese, spokesman Ken Bacon, who is an Assistant Secretary for Defense repeated 8220;I am not going to comment on India8217;s view of the threats it may face.8221;

Fernandes sharp comments also stirred plenty of interest in the mediaand the Hill. The conservative Washington Times front-paged the story on Monday and the 8220;be-wary-of-China8221;lobby on the Hill chewed on the latest unexpected development from the sub-continent.