Topple and be damned

As we all know, the Mulayam Singh Yadav-Laloo Prasad Yadav-Chandra Shekhar coterie has long been on the record that the sooner this government is pulled down the better. Jyoti Basu, a self-proclaimed heir to the Prime Minister’s chair in the election campaign, abruptly reversed himself, offering support to a Congress-dominated ministry. The last hurdle was the personal animositybetween Sonia Gandhi and Jayalalitha, and that had apparently been cleared up after a telephone conversation.

Sonia Gandhi, a hitherto reluctant heroine, had been persuaded that it would be dangerous to permit the Vajpayee ministry to continue. News came to her that the Indian government had persuaded the Belizean authorities to cancel the passport of a certain Win Chaddha, best known for his role in the Bofors saga. (He is currently residing in Dubai on the strength of his papers from the small Central American nation.)

If Chaddha were brought back to India and he started talking, it wouldn’t be long before the mysteries of Bofors were unraveled. That is something that the Congress president could not afford. So Sonia Gandhi swallowed her reservations about the likes of the Yadav duo and decided to play along.

So what went wrong? I think Sharad Pawar said it best; explaining the consequences if the Vajpayee ministry were brought down immediately, he predicted "chaos".

Whatever their otherdifferences, Sonia Gandhi had the wisdom to accept this blunt statement. Seven months ago the Congress was the butt of public contempt after it pulled down the United Front government. It took, as a Congress Working Committee resolution accepted, "a Herculean effort" from Sonia Gandhi merely to bring the party back where it was. The magic of the family name might not work a second time.

Does this mean that the government can breathe easier? No, not really. The day of reckoning has been postponed, not cancelled. The earliest opportunity shall probably present itself just after Independence Day. The buzz in Delhi is that the Prime Minister shall be inducting new faces into his ministry. Whether or not the rumours are true, pressure is already mounting on him. If it is true, there are bound to be plenty of malcontents, unhappy either because they haven’t been inducted or because of their choice of portfolio. They could prove easy pickings.

The second chance to topple the Vajpayee ministry shall come laterthis year, just after elections are held in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi. Judging by the results of the Lok Sabha polls, Madhya Pradesh should swing to the BJP and Rajasthan to the Congress. That leaves Delhi, and this could be a surprise.

Delhi has proved loyal to the BJP in one election after the other for quite a while. But there is a strong body of thought which feels that it is time for a change. The past six months or so have been fairly hellish for Delhiites — savage power cuts, chronic water shortage, strikes by practically everyone from nurses to postmen …

Congressmen believe that they are ideally placed to take advantage of the resultant public discontent. The last thing they want is a massive sympathy wave in favour of the BJP if the Vajpayee ministry is toppled through backroom manoeuvres.

Assuming that the BJP’s victory in Madhya Pradesh neutralises the effect of its defeat in Rajasthan, the results of the Delhi Assembly polls become even more important than usual. The Congressdoesn’t want to rock the boat until the ballots are counted.

If the Congress has learned the lessons of the Uttar Pradesh fiasco, Mulayam Singh Yadav and his fellow conspirators evidently haven’t. They are pushing their friends in the Congress to go for the earlier date and bring down the Vapayee ministry in August. And that in turn leaves the Congress wondering about the reliability of such "allies".

Conflict is built into any partnership between the Congress and the units of the erstwhile United Front. Sonia Gandhi wants to rebuild the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar; how can she do so without poaching on the votebanks of the two Yadavs? Can she ask her partymen to respect a truce with the Marxists in West Bengal and Kerala?

And, of course, there is the ever-unpredictable lady in Poes Garden, Chennai. The Congress sees Jayalalitha as the ideal partner in bringing down the present government. But the AIADMK is not the ally of choice when it comes to actually forming a coherent administration. Allthe pressures now being brought to bear on the BJP will burden the Congress too.

It may be possible, as some insist, to bring down the government in fifteen minutes flat. But the unspoken corollary is that Sonia Gandhi can’t keep a ministry going for the fifteen days to follow!

And, finally, the Congress isn’t sure how President Narayanan shall react to such shenanigans. The President knows what happened when his predecessors opted for alternate ministries in order to avert mid-term polls. Charan Singh couldn’t face Parliament even once, Chandra Shekhar was toppled in three months, and Gujral lasted barely seven months. The Congress knows how the President reacted to Romesh Bhandari’s antics; it would rather not tempt such censure.

Untrustworthy allies. An honest President committed to the Constitution. The prospect of explaining to the voters why the Congress invited "chaos". The Congress has everything to gain by waiting, everything to lose by hurrying.