To withdraw support to United Front or not is the Congress dilemma

The UF is like a house made of a pack of cards. Shifting even one will bring the house down. Its constituents realise that. They know that the ouster of the DMK is the first step towards the entry of the Congress in the Front.

And ultimately that may lead to a Congress-led Government. That would mean trouble for those parties which are fighting the Congress in states like the TDP, the AGP, the Janata Dal in Orissa and Karnataka and the Communists.

The regional bosses have a problem with the consolidation of the Congress, or even of an individual like a member of the Gandhi-Nehru family, for the simple reason that it would take place at their expense. Even Chandra Shekhar could dismiss the Government of Karunanidhi. Gujral just cannot do that. Today it is a Government of the regional bosses, and they are not going to hand over that power to the Congress if they can help it.

The sabre rattling Congressmen base their plans on the hope of a tie-up with Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP and with Laloo Yadav in Bihar in the next elections to improve their tally. But they are living in a dream world. Why should Mulayam and Laloo give away their seats when they get zilch in terms of votes from the Congress? Even a Shekhar along with Anand Mohan Singh could add some Rajput votes to Laloo’s vote bank in some constituencies in Bihar.

Both the Yadavs now dream of `raj’ in Delhi and they would want to maximise their numbers in the next Lok Sabha election. Laloo is now thinking of shifting to national politics when he is out of jail and leave wife Rabri Devi to run the show back home.

Congressmen who are talking in terms of `now or never’ — they comprise mostly Rajya Sabha members or those who are not MPs — are pinning their hopes on Sonia Gandhi. They believe she will campaign for the party in select constituencies and that would make a difference of at least 30-40 seats all over the country, which might be enough to give the party the status of the single largest entity. Once it acquires that position, the President would invite it to form the Government first and this would compel the regional parties to support it in order the keep the BJP at bay.

Campaigning by Sonia could enthuse party rank and file. But there again, the character of the rank and file of the Congress has undergone a change in the last years, even since the time when Rajiv was alive. It is no longer made up of traditional workers, but more of touts who work for the party for a price — as may be for other parties also — and that is why power is so important for the Congress.

Forget the argument that the BJP will get a fillip by her entry into direct politics.The more relevant question is: Can Sonia, without leading the party herself, make such a difference to its fortunes in so short a period when a message takes time to trickle down in a dominantly rural society? More so as when society has become so sharply polarised in north India. After all, we are not talking about metropolitan centres which may well oppose her.

And why should Sonia come forward and risk exposing herself and destroying the mystique about the charisma of the Gandhi-Nehru family? At no time in the last six years has the party touched such a low. Uttar Pradesh has been the political home of the Nehru-Gandhi family, and a disastrous show there will hardly cover Sonia with glory. The Congress had polled around 4 per cent votes on its own and 8 per cent in alliance with the BSP. After the recent split the party may not even have 2 per cent vote in the state to its credit.

No doubt the assassination of her husband must be a painful issue for Sonia, and she will naturally want action on the Report. She has apparently been annoyed that Sitaram Kesri took such a lukewarm position towards the document penned by Justice MC Jain. But will she force the party to take a step which could backfire on the Congress, and also not leave her untouched? In the last six years, she has moved with extreme caution.

The Congress may think it has an issue in the Jain Report but it may boomerang in an election. The party’s own role in encouraging the LTTE, financing and training it, cannot be suppressed. While the DMK will talk about the support of Indira and Rajiv to Prabhakaran, Akalis will talk about Congress’ cynical policies which made Bhindranwale a frankenstein.

It was a mistake for Kesri to have softpedalled the issue at the CWC, and this only gave a ready handle to his detractors to get at him. Rajiv’s assassination is an issue which the Congress, caught in a tailspin now, will find difficult to deescalate. At best it can only wait till the final report of Justice Jain is out, and this is the maximum that the UF may be able to offer it by way of a face-saver.

The Congress is caught now between the devil and deep sea. Continuing support to the UF will mean a loss of face. Withdrawal of support is a hazardous course. Given the present mood of the party, it could trigger off a split in the party by those who want to avoid an election, are apprehensive about their political future, and have no qualms about joining hands with the BJP to form a Government. That is something worrying the Congress leadership. If there is no way Kesri can avoid the withdrawal of support, he may prefer a dissolution of the Lok Sabha by Gujral, for that at least would keep his flock together.

Even after the election, a split in the Congress cannot now be ruled out, if the BJP emerges as the single largest party. Naresh Aggarwal has played the `historic’ role of ending the untouchability of the BJP.

Yes,the Congress is dying. If Congressmen are really honest, their actions today are not being dictated by a love for Rajiv. Nor out of a love for the party. They are pursuing their own personal agendas. Gone are the bottom lines.

Really speaking, the present crisis is not one between the UF and the Congress. It is an intra-Congress problem. It is yet another symptom of the disintegration of the party.