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Tibet Games

The Chinese Communist Party leadership basking in the glory of Beijing Olympics might be generous enough to...

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The Chinese Communist Party leadership basking in the glory of Beijing Olympics might be generous enough to offer an olive branch to the Dalai Lama, the exiled leader of the Tibetan people. This tantalising possibility was raised, a day before the Olympics began, by the New York Times8217; columnist and former Beijing correspondent, Nicholas D. Kristof.

Based on his discussions with the Chinese officials and the Dalai Lama, Kristof suggested there might be a little more flexibility in the approaches of both sides than their publicly stated positions. He points to the interesting but eventually unsuccessful recent conversation on the Dalai Lama attending the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics.

Kristof hopes the Dalai Lama may yet get an invitation to visit China in November to mark the six-month anniversary of the tragic Sichuan earthquake in May.

At the heart of a successful Sino-Tibetan bargain, Kristof lays out, could be the Dalai Lama8217;s willingness to scale down the demand for political autonomy in return for substantive cultural rights.

The Dalai Lama seems willing to do exactly that. Beyond his recent political concession to abjure independence, the Dalai Lama is now prepared to accept the legitimacy of the communist regime in Tibet, Kristof reports. Denying any political interest in Tibet, the Dalai Lama says his only concern is to ensure the survival of Tibetan culture.

Implementing this settlement would involve, in addition, the Dalai Lama giving up his demand for a 8216;greater Tibet8217; within China and settling for the current territorial limits of the Tibet Autonomous Region. China, in turn, would set up a trans-regional authority to ensure the rights of the Tibetan people outside the TAR. China would also need to restrict the movement of outsiders into the Tibetan areas.

Having got some major concessions from the Dalai Lama, Kristof suggests, it is now China8217;s turn to reciprocate.

The Response

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Kristof8217;s suggestions elicited an immediate response from Lodi Gyari, the Dalai Lama8217;s Special Envoy and principal interlocutor with the Chinese. Neither contradicting nor endorsing Kristof8217;s package, Gyari cautioned against the view that the Tibetan exiles are only interested in cultural rights. He pointed out that the current Chinese law on Tibet promises a variety of other economic and political rights. Gyari8217;s implicit emphasis appears simple8212;an effective implementation of these existing rights must be part of the final settlement.

The Chinese response, as always, is opaque. While the Foreign Office in Beijing issued a boilerplate statement that what the Dalai Lama does is more important than what he says. Commentary in the Chinese press on the Dalai Lama8217;s new concessions, however, has been predictably negative.

Some analysts questioned the wisdom of Dalai Lama trying to negotiate through American media. Others argued against the implications of restricting the movement of Chinese citizens into Tibet. More extreme views decried it all as an anti-Chinese plot.

These reactions do not necessarily mean that the last word from Beijing has been heard. Nor is there any doubt that Kristof8217;s ideas do point a way out of the current impasse. The Chinese and Tibetans do speak to each other in a special code of their own and surprises can never be ruled out.

Prachanda8217;s value

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Whether we see a serious post-Olympics engagement between China and the Dalai Lama or not, Beijing will now focus intensely on rooting out all sources of the bold revolt that it encountered earlier this year in the

Tibetan areas.

That in turn makes Nepal8217;s cooperation critical for Beijing. As the only country that shares an international border with Tibet, other than India and Bhutan, Nepal is being steadily drawn into the Chinese strategy in Tibet. This has involved deepening Nepal8217;s economic integration into Tibet, getting Kathmandu to crack down on the activities of the Tibetan exiles, and eliminating any cross-border support to the dissidents.

Not surprisingly, Beijing has rolled out the red carpet for Nepal8217;s prime minister Prachanda, who went to Beijing last week to attend the closing ceremony of the Olympics. Both the Chinese President Hu Jintao and the premier Wen Jiabao received him.Chinese leaders apparently promised to shower economic assistance on Nepal. Prachanda has reportedly reassured his hosts of his government8217;s commitment to put down any activity in Nepal that Beijing might consider hostile.

India should not be surprised that Prachanda8217;s rhetoric on Nepal8217;s sovereignty so pointedly directed against New Delhi is conspicuous by its absence in his engagement with Beijing.

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The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, expressexpressindia.com

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