Three years down, is Mulayam146;s time UP?

Lucknow saw a poorly attended political bash on Tuesday, Mulayam Singh Yadav government8217;s third anniversary. Is it time to seriously ask whether UP is readying for a regime change?

It was an anniversary party celebrated in splendid isolation 8211; some of the invitees didn8217;t turn up because they were out of town, others did not bother to show up because the invitation was a mere formality, without an RSVP. The Samajwadi Party-led coalition government celebrated its third anniversary bash in Lucknow on Tuesday, but none of its alliance partners came to the party 8211; the most conspicuous absentee being Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav8217;s crucial ally, the RLD8217;s Ajit Singh. Singh excused himself days ago saying he had a prior commitment in UP8217;s Badayun where he was addressing a public rally, but no one could ignore the significance of his snub, especially with Assembly elections looming in February, 2007.

Other allies like the Loktantrik Congress Party and independents who are in Yadav8217;s government, apart the Congress and CPIM which support it from outside, were all absent. The SP leadership still raised a battle cry for victory at the polls, but the niggling worry: Are Yadav8217;s friends abandoning a sinking ship?

For months there8217;s been speculation about Ajit Singh toppling the Yadav government Singh has 15 MLAs and getting a plum portfolio in the union cabinet in return for the favour he8217;d be doing to the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. If Singh was getting increasingly peeved by Amar Singh8217;s imperiousness, matters worsened when he realised his own advisor Anuradha Chowdhury was having doubts about a break-up with the SP. While Chowdhury has won a Parliament seat, she continues to head the state8217;s Flood Control and Relief Commission. The RLD8217;s been having a dream run in the Yadav government despite its small numbers 8211; apart from six cabinet ministers, it holds the key to four influential state commissions, and the more privileged are not willing to give them up.

However, the RLD has been taking an independent view of late, apart from queering the pitch for a separate state of Harit Pradesh, Singh has even enthusiastically backed V P Singh8217;s agitation against the Yadav government on the potent farmers8217; issue. The Jan Dal, which was re-launched in April this year, has been a platform for all disgruntled Yadav allies 8211; from Ajit Singh to suspended SP MP Raj Babbar. The Dal has been mopping up several parties which represent the more backward castes, and has successfully created a coalition of the willing against Yadav. These parties include the Justice Party, National Loktantrik Party, Samajik Vikas Dal and such like. The hope is to put up a formidable alliance of RLD, Jan Dal, Apna Dal to cut into the SP8217;s votes in western UP.

Ironically, the Congress could save the Yadav government, as a covert alliance at the time of elections can be bountiful 8212; cut short Maya-wati8217;s surging ambitions and forge a post-poll coalition with the SP in case of a shortfall. Also, if the Congress hopes to revive in UP, it has to steadily chip away at its most daunting rival, the BSP, which has snatched its core constituency, the Dalits. It will also keep the SP in check and hope to woo its votebank, the Muslims. A pipedream maybe.

Salman Khursheed, UPCC chief, dismisses the plot as nothing. Instead, he outlines the Congress8217; strategy for UP 8211; in the long term to build the party at the grassroots level will continue, so the party is not averse to short term alliances to strengthen the UPA government at the Centre. Says Khusheed, 8220;For instance, if we have to have an alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan in UP to streng- then the government at the Centre, we aren8217;t averse to it.8221; There8217;s no possibility of political partnership with the SP as the Congress is leading the agitation against the Yadav Government: 8220;Our poll strategy is to fight them in the field,8221; he says. On a future alliance with the Dal-RLD, Khursheed says it8217;s all kite-flying at the moment, any future strategies will firm up only closer to the polls.